Inside the DAT Crash as mNAV Collapses, Liquidity Tightens, and the Premium Era Ends

Over the past month, BTC fell from its all-time high of $126,000 to below $90,000. A 25% pullback sent the market into panic, and the Fear Index has dropped into single digits.

Saylor is still buying.

On November 17, Michael Saylor posted on X: “Big Week.”

Shortly after, the announcement revealed that MSTR bought another 8,178 BTC for $835.6 million, bringing its total holdings to more than 649,000 BTC.

The biggest bull is still here.

Despite the celebration in Saylor's comment section, someone uncovered a critical detail: MSTR's mNAV is already close to falling below 1.

mNAV is the market net asset value multiple, which serves as the key metric that measures how much premium MSTR’s share price carries relative to its underlying BTC holdings.

Put simply:

• mNAV = 2 means the market is willing to pay $2 for $1 worth of BTC assets.

• mNAV = 1 means the premium disappears.

• mNAV < 1 means the stock is trading at a discount.

This metric is the lifeline of Saylor’s entire business model.

For comparison, the last time BTC dropped 25% was in March this year. At the time, Trump announced new tariffs on multiple countries, markets panicked, the Nasdaq fell 3% in a single day, and crypto sank with it.。

BTC fell from $105k to $78k, which is more than 25%. But back then, MSTR was in a completely different position.

mNAV was still around 2, and Saylor had an entire arsenal of financing tools: convertibles, preferred shares, and ATM issuance. He could summon liquidity anytime to buy the dip.

And this time? mNAV has fallen below 1. That means the strategy of issuing stock to buy more BTC is becoming unworkable. For example, if MSTR issues $1 of new shares now, investors might only be getting about $0.97 worth of BTC.

That’s not buying the dip. That’s selling at a loss.

And according to MSTR’s Q3 earnings report, the company only has $54.3 million in cash left on its balance sheet.

In other words, it’s not that Saylor doesn’t want to go big on the dip.

He might simply not be able to anymore.

November 2024 vs November 2025

Let’s flip back to the books from exactly one year ago.

In November 2024, after Trump won the election, BTC went vertical, soaring from $75k to $96k.

What was Saylor doing? Buying aggressively.

Where did the money come from?

Debt issuance. A massive $3 billion convertible note, maturing in 2029, and the best part: zero interest.

Fast forward one year, and the picture looks completely different.

Beyond price movement, the change in financing methods is just as important.

Last year, Saylor borrowed $3 billion to buy BTC with zero interest, and repayment not due until 2029. That was essentially free money.

This year, he can only issue a special type of stock called perpetual preferred shares, which require MSTR to pay out 9 to 10% annually to investors.

The terms are clearly worse. It suggests the market may be losing confidence in MSTR and is no longer willing to lend him money for free.

But with mNAV falling below 1, the real trouble is the spiral that follows:

mNAV drops → financing ability weakens → more stock issuance becomes necessary → equity gets further diluted → share price falls → mNAV drops again.

That spiral is already underway.

Since the start of this year, BTC has only dropped 4.75%, but MSTR’s share price has fallen 32.53%.

On November 17, MSTR hit a 52-week low of $194.54 after six straight days of decline. From its annual peak, the stock is now down 49.19%.

Compared to BTC, MSTR has underperformed by 27%. The market is voting straightforwardly: instead of buying MSTR, it’s simply better to just buy BTC.

And in 2025, more and more companies have adopted BTC or other tokens as part of their treasury strategy. MSTR is no longer the only option.

With rising competition and a weakening crypto market, what reason do investors have to give MSTR a premium?

MicroStrategy’s entire model is simple: continuously raise capital to buy BTC, let BTC appreciation support the stock price, then use that stock premium to raise even more capital.

But when BTC drops sharply, and as mNAV falls below 1, this loop stops running smoothly.

In November 2025, Saylor is still buying, but it’s clear he no longer has the capacity to keep up the pace.

Other DAT companies are also having a rough time

MSTR’s situation isn’t an isolated case.

The entire Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) sector has been taking heavy hits throughout November.

Let’s start with the companies holding BTC:

These companies follow the miner + treasury model. In the first two weeks of November, BTC fell about 15%, but their stock prices all dropped more than 30%.

But the ones suffering even more are the companies holding altcoins.

Companies holding ETH:

These companies hold ETH as their primary treasury asset.

In the first two weeks of November, ETH fell from $3,639 to $3,120 (-14.3%), but their share prices dropped 17–20%.

Companies holding SOL:

The most surreal case here is DFDV. In early 2025, its SOL-based treasury strategy sent the stock soaring 24,506%. But by November 17, it had crashed from its peak of $187.99 to around $6.74.

Companies holding BNB:

Why are altcoin-treasury companies getting hit even harder?

The logic is simple.

BTC fell 25%, but ETH, SOL, BNB and other altcoins dropped far more than BTC.

When the underlying treasury assets are more volatile, the stock price gets amplified even further. Also, the altcoin-treasury companies face an even bigger problem, liquidity risk.

Meanwhile, BTC has the deepest liquidity in the entire crypto market. Even if you hold hundreds of thousands of BTC, like MSTR, you can still slowly unwind through OTC desks or exchanges.

However, ETH, SOL, and BNB liquidity is nowhere near BTC’s. When fear hits the market, offloading a few million ETH creates massive sell pressure, which drags prices down further and triggers a vicious cycle.

The November crash was a full-scale stress test.

And it's clear that no matter whether they hold BTC or altcoins, DAT companies saw stock price drops far larger than the decline of their treasury assets.

For companies holding altcoins, the damage is even more severe.

When the money-printing machine breaks

If even Saylor can’t keep buying, how safe are your DAT stocks?

November’s market tore off the last layer of disguise from DAT equities. According to the latest data from SaylorTracker, the market value of MSTR’s BTC holdings has fallen below $60 billion, and the unrealized profit on its 649,870 BTC is about to drop below the $10 billion mark.

Once mNAV falls below 1, MSTR’s “BTC money-printer” model starts to break down. Issuing shares to buy more BTC stops working smoothly, financing costs spike, and ammunition dries up, and these are problems Saylor must now confront.

Data also shows that the capital inflows into DAT companies have already started to decline.

In October, inflows hit their lowest level since the 2024 election.

BTC miner stocks are down roughly 30%, ETH-treasury companies are down 20%, and SOL/BNB-treasury stocks have crashed to the point of existential doubt. No matter which company you’re bullish on, the stock price has fallen far more than the value of its underlying treasury assets.

Part of this comes from the broader macro environment, with U.S. equity investors selling and moving into safer assets. But the structural flaws built into the DAT model from day one are now becoming much more painful in a bearish market.

When crypto pulls back, the leveraged structure of DAT stocks magnifies the drop. You think you are buying “BTC exposure with a premium,” but in reality you are holding a leveraged downside accelerator.

If you are still holding these stocks, it may be time to ask yourself:

Did you buy them for crypto exposure, or for a premium illusion that no longer exists?