ICO is Dead: A Review of the Kaito Launchpad

"Is the ICO dead?"

If we define an ICO as a mechanism for early investors to capture long-term value alongside the growth of a protocol, the answer, based on the latest data from the Kaito Launchpad, is an unequivocal yes.

In 2025, ICOs replaced airdrops as the dominant token distribution model, as airdrop launches increasingly rewarded farmers and insiders rather than genuine users. Projects turned to public sales to limit dilution, yet most structures still reinforced a “dump on receipt” dynamic instead of long-term value creation.

As the broader crypto market collapses, the modern ICO cycle proved far shorter than expected. Participation no longer implied asymmetric upside, and buying into an ICO no longer translated into reliable profits.

This report presents a comprehensive review of the Kaito Launchpad, covering 11 completed launches and three upcoming TGEs. The data shows a structural breakdown in the relationship between project quality and investor returns. That relationship has been replaced by a harsh power-law distribution driven by hype intensity and the concentration of committed capital.

Our analysis of the Kaito dataset reveals a bifurcated market. On one side, we have the "Tier 1" outliers like Limitless ($LMTS) and Boundless ($ZKC), which commanded over $70 million in committed capital and delivered ATH returns of 926% and 614%, respectively. On the other side lies the silent majority, projects like Play AI and Novastro, which effectively incinerated investor capital within minutes of launch, currently trading down 84% to 99%.

The most damning statistic, however, is not the failure rate of the launches themselves, but the penalty for holding. Of the 11 projects that have undergone their Token Generation Event (TGE), only three are currently trading above their IDO price. The remaining eight have collapsed, with an average drawdown of over 50% from their Day 1 valuation.

The ICO is dead; welcome to the era of the Liquidity Flip.

A Broken Market

To understand why the ICO model no longer works as a long-term holding strategy, the most important place to look is post-TGE price performance. This review analyzes the full Kaito ecosystem, covering both the main Launchpad and the Kickstarter tier, which targets smaller raises and earlier-stage projects.

Across both tiers, the pattern is consistent. The market structure actively penalizes holding. Price action after launch strongly favors early exits, while passive holders face poor outcomes.

• Total Projects: 14 (11 Launched, 3 Pending TGE)

• Currently Profitable (vs. ICO Price): 3 ($LMTS, $ZKP, $CHECK)

• Currently Underwater: 8

In practical terms, a passive buy-and-hold strategy fails nearly 73% of the time on this platform. This success rate is worse than that of most casino table games, which generally offer win probabilities between 42% and 49% for standard bets. Without strict project selection and disciplined exit timing, participating in ICOs has effectively become a negative expected value strategy.

See the chart below for a comprehensive overview of Kaito Launchpad performance.

The Best Performer: Limitless ($LMTS)

Limitless is the clear standout on the platform, outperforming every other launch across all key metrics, including demand, Day 1 performance, all-time high returns, and post-launch holding performance. The launch attracted approximately $200 million in committed capital for a $1 million allocation, resulting in a 200x oversubscription rate and creating a severe liquidity imbalance at launch.

• Highest Peak: It hit a massive 926% (10.26x) All-Time High return.

• Best Launch Day: Delivered the highest Day 1 return on investment at 3.8x.

• Most Demand: It had a record-breaking 200x oversubscription with $200M in committed capital.

• Only "Safe" Hold: Remains one of the very few projects still trading well above its ICO price, at approximately 2.17x.

Note on Token Unlocks: Public sale tokens were not fully unlocked at TGE. Only 50 percent of the supply was released initially, with the remaining 50 percent vesting over six months. At present, the token maintains a positive ROI. However, downside risk may emerge when the remaining supply unlocks and becomes tradable.

The Worst Performers

The title for "worst" is a tie depending on whether you look at immediate loss or total death.

1. Worst Launch Day: Play AI ($PLAI)

Play AI represents the most severe immediate loss among all launches.

• This project was a disaster from the first second of trading.

• It launched with a 0.16x ROI, meaning investors lost 84% of their money immediately upon TGE.

• It had extremely low demand (1.05x oversubscription), foreshadowing the crash.

2. Worst Total Performance: Novastro ($XNL)

Novastro illustrates the slowest but most complete form of value destruction.

• While it didn't crash as hard as Play AI on Day 1 (0.36x), it has bled out completely.

• It is currently trading at 0.01x ROI (down 99%), with a fully diluted valuation of just ~$745k. It is effectively a dead project.

How About the Pending Launch?

As of this report, three projects have yet to conduct their TGE. These projects are Espresso, Billions, and Rise. Unlike most contemporaneous launches on the platform, all three experienced a prolonged gap between their public sale and TGE.

Espresso, Billions, and Rise concluded their public sales in August 2025. The approximately four-month delay between the sale and token launch is notable in the current market environment, where most projects proceed to TGE within a shorter timeframe.

Extended delays can reflect several factors, including operational recalibration, market maker negotiations, or shifts in community engagement and market conditions relative to the original sale period. Regardless of the cause, prolonged intervals increase uncertainty around demand persistence at launch.

Project Profiles and Market Implications

Espresso ($ESP) Espresso is scheduled to launch at a valuation of approximately $400 million, the highest among the pending projects. Its public sale recorded a 1.4x oversubscription rate. Launching at a high valuation relative to a modest demand multiple may introduce price discovery challenges at TGE, particularly if secondary market liquidity does not expand beyond initial sale participants.

Rise Rise is expected to launch at a valuation of $200 million and concluded its public sale with a 1.05x oversubscription rate. The close alignment between committed capital and the raise cap suggests limited excess demand.

Billions ($BILL) Billions is set to launch at a $100 million valuation with a 2x oversubscription rate. While its valuation is lower than those of its peers, its demand multiple is more favorable.

Looking Forward

By the end of 2025, many narratives that once dominated market attention have proven flawed. The market is no longer anchored by a unifying theme, and no new narrative has emerged to replace them. What the industry needs instead are mechanisms that work, products people actually use, and value that persists beyond the first wave of liquidity.

Till then, ICO participation will probably still remain a negative expected value strategy.

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