As Crypto Dumps, Prediction Markets Pump

The broader crypto market has recently faced a significant dip, triggering massive liquidations.

On October 22, liquidations totaled $623 million, primarily affecting long positions.According to the most recent data, long liquidations reached $1.37 billion over the past 24 hours, with total liquidations exceeding $1.7 billion.

Fun Fact: Following this recent market flush, the Hyperliquid whale who had previously earned substantial profits has now given all of it back to the market.

While the rest of the crypto market remains volatile and uncertain, prediction markets are heating up again.

Polymarket, in particular, has taken the spotlight with the New York City mayoral election, correctly predicting Zohran Mamdani as the next NYC mayor ahead of every major news outlet, purely based on on-chain polling data.

If you're in crypto, it might be time to pivot to prediction markets.

Let's look at the data

The prediction market sector hit an all-time high in last week weekly notional volume, reaching $2.85 billion, surpassing even the 2024 U.S. election peak.

• Polymarket: $1.1B

• Kalshi: $954.4M

• Opinion: $748.8M

• Myriad: $21.6M

• Limitless: $15.9M

After peaking in November 2024, market activity cooled in early 2025 but has surged back in recent months. With the broader crypto market turning weak, traders are shifting toward prediction markets as the new speculative hotspot.

This resurgence is largely powered by sports markets, led by the League of Legends (LoL) World Championship, which brought a flood of new users.

Weekly sports volume hit a record $1B+ in October, marking a new all-time high and making sports a major growth driver for the entire sector.

Many first-time users has also joined prediction markets specifically to bet on LoL outcomes, positioning esports as the new onboarding catalyst for the space. Kalshi, notably, has narrowed its gap with Polymarket in sports market volume.

Political markets dominated the 2024 cycle (likely tied to U.S. election activity) with a sharp spike above 1 billion USD weekly around October 2024. Polymarket continues to lead political volume, while Kalshi maintains a smaller but consistent share.

Crypto-related prediction markets have been on a steady climb, showing a parabolic rise since mid-2025. Recent weekly volumes surpassed $200 million, marking a new all-time high for the category.

Notably, Polymarket has recently introduced short-term crypto markets, allowing users to predict whether Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, or XRP will move up or down within 15 minutes.

New Meta: Predict the Airdrop

Combining crypto and prediction markets, airdrop forecasting is emerging as the next major trend.

Traders are now betting on when a project will launch its token, whether it will actually launch, and what its FDV will be on day one.

Currently, there are a couple numbers of active markets tracking these events:

Airdrop by...? → 6 markets

Traders are highly confident in upcoming airdrops, with Monad (99%, June 30), MegaETH (92%, June 30), Lighter (88%, December 31), and Hyperliquid (83%, December 31, 2026) leading the pack, while Pump.fun (41%, December 31) trails amid lower conviction.

For the “Nothing Ever Happens: Airdrops Edition” market, it will only resolve to NO if none of the following occur by December 31, 2025:

• Base airdrop

• Metamask airdrop

• OpenSea airdrop

• Pump.fun airdrop

FDV one day after launch? → 3 markets

This is one of the most popular market types before TGE, where the pre-market price serves as a benchmark for traders to bet on the token’s FDV one day after launch.

Currently, there are only three active markets: Lighter, MegaETH, and Monad, and traders show strong conviction that all three will launch with FDVs above $2 billion.

Lighter (Perp DEX): The token is not yet trading on pre-market, but based on competitor valuations such as Hyperliquid ($40B FDV) and Aster ($8.2B FDV), the probability of Lighter exceeding a $2B FDV is very high.

Especially as the Perp DEX sector recently hit a new all-time high of $1.75 trillion in trading volume, with Lighter, Aster, and Hyperliquid leading the activity, further increasing awareness and confidence in Lighter’s potential.

MegaETH ($MEGA): $MEGA is currently trading at $0.37 on Hyperliquid pre-market, translating to an FDV of $3.7B, well above the $2B threshold.

Monad ($MON): $MON is now trading at $0.055 at hyperliquid pre-market, which translates to $5.5B FDV, significantly higher than $2B FDV.

Will it launch a token by 2025?

This is the most popular category here, with a total of 22 markets predicting whether the projects or celebrities will launch a token by 2025.

Market sentiment clearly favors emerging crypto-native projects over established players. Canton (97%), EdgeX (85%), Sentient (85%), and Zama (85%) lead with the highest confidence in upcoming token launches.

Stable (82%) and Hyperbeat (62%) show moderate optimism, while Aztec (33%) and Infinex (18%) reflect uncertainty around timelines.

Well-known names such as Robinhood (14%), Metamask (7%), OpenAI (3%), and Opensea (2%) remain at the bottom, suggesting little expectation for near-term token plans among major incumbents.

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