The Great 2025 Crypto Prediction Audit: Who Nailed It and Who Got Rekt?

As the year draws to a close, we can expect major institutions to roll out their 2026 crypto predictions and outlooks over the coming month.

However, it is worth looking back at what these institutions said last year. After all, anyone can make a prediction; accuracy is the true measure of skill.

Looking back to the end of 2024, market sentiment was highly optimistic. Bitcoin had just broken through $100,000, and forecasts were universally optimistic. Calls included BTC charging toward $200,000, stablecoin market caps doubling, AI agents igniting on-chain activity, and a wave of crypto unicorns launching IPOs.

Now that a year has passed, have those predictions materialized?

We selected key viewpoints from a range of representative institutions and individuals to conduct a point-by-point audit and see who ultimately achieved the highest hit rate.

VanEck: 10% Accuracy, Only Predicted the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Correctly

Of the 10 predictions VanEck released at the end of 2024, the only successful call was the establishment of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.

The remaining nine predictions failed completely. These were not minor deviations but errors of magnitude. For instance, the forecast for a crypto market peak in Q1 with Bitcoin reaching $180k, followed by new highs at year-end, proved to be completely contrary to actual market timing and price targets.

Market sizing forecasts were also overly optimistic:

• Tokenized Securities: Forecast $50B vs. Actual ~$30–35B.

• DeFi TVL: Forecast $200B vs. Actual ~$120–130B.

• NFT Volume: Forecast $30B vs. Actual ~$5–6.5B.

Overall, while VanEck’s judgment on policy direction was quite accurate, they systematically overestimated the volume of the on-chain economy.

e, they systematically overestimated the volume of on-chain economic activity.

Bitwise Achieved a 50% Hit Rate: Accurate on Trends, Overoptimistic on Price

Bitwise landed 5 out of its 10 predictions. Its successes were concentrated in regulation and institutional adoption, while its price and market sizing forecasts were systematically overestimated.

Policy and institutional adoption predictions were spot on. Coinbase and MicroStrategy successfully entered major U.S. equity indices. The predicted "Year of the Crypto IPO" materialized with multiple companies going public, and the number of nation-states holding Bitcoin surged from nine to nearly thirty.

However, all price targets missed the mark. Projected prices for BTC, ETH, and SOL far exceeded actual performance. Coinbase stock hovers around $250, missing the $700 target by approximately 65%. Similarly, the $50 billion estimate for RWA tokenization proved to be significantly overblown.

Overall, Bitwise demonstrated keen policy acumen, accurately gauging the rhythm of regulatory shifts and institutional adoption.

Coinbase: Almost 100% Accurate by Focusing on Trends, Not Numbers

Coinbase divided its predictions into two main categories: "Macro" and "Disrupting Paradigms." These were primarily directional judgments rather than precise figures, serving as forward-looking trend analysis.

Here are the core predictions that can be verified:

Other predictions were directionally accurate but difficult to quantify:

It is evident that Coinbase deliberately avoided specific price targets, focusing instead on policy inflection points and industrial trends. As a result, their core directional predictions were entirely accurate.

• Regulatory Shift (Fully Verified): They predicted that the "most pro-crypto Congress in history" would bring regulatory tailwinds and that more asset ETFs would be approved. The reality has matched this perfectly.

• Stablecoins & DeFi (Directionally Accurate): They forecast "explosive growth" for stablecoins and their expansion into commercial payments. This materialized this year with Mastercard announcing support for USDC/PYUSD/USDG in June, Coinbase’s payment platform integrating with Shopify, and Stripe launching USDC subscription payments.

• DeFi Recovery: The prediction of a DeFi resurgence was validated, with TVL reaching $120 billion, which is near a three-year high since May 2022.

While this strategy of "forecasting direction rather than price levels" may lack sensationalism, it proves to be the most prudent approach in hindsight and minimizes the risk of being proven wrong.

Galaxy Research: 26% Accuracy Rate, Quantitative Forecasts Almost Entirely Failed

Galaxy’s researchers collectively issued 23 predictions, making their report the most quantitative and extensive among all institutions.

Performance Review:

• Policy (Excellent): The policy team performed exceptionally well with a 100% hit rate.

• Price & Market Size (Missed): These forecasts were nearly all incorrect. Specifically, the prediction of DOGE breaking $1 now appears to have been overly optimistic.

• Ecosystem (Good): Galaxy’s predictions on ecosystem development held up well. For instance, their forecast that the majority of miners would pivot to AI and High-Performance Computing (HPC) accurately identified a significant trend in this year's AI boom.

When prediction volume is high and granularity is fine, even professional research institutions cannot get everything right; the market simply did not evolve in the way everyone expected.

HashKey: 70% Accuracy Rate, Price Predictions Too Optimistic

Overall, HashKey demonstrated precise judgment regarding regulatory compliance (ETFs, stablecoin legislation) and structural changes in the ecosystem (the rise of DEXs, L2 differentiation). However, they remained overly optimistic regarding the price cycle.

Interestingly, this report also served as a mirror for the crypto community's sentiment at the time.

When HashKey Group released its "Top 10 Market Predictions for 2025," nearly 50,000 community members participated in a vote on 16 hot topics curated by HashKey researchers, analysts, and traders.

The results showed that 50% of voters were betting on the prediction that "Bitcoin would break $300,000, Ethereum would exceed $8,000, and the total crypto market cap would reach $10 trillion."

Ironically, as we stand here at the end of the year, the prediction that received the highest conviction from the community turned out to be the one least likely to materialize.

Delphi Digital: 40% Accuracy, Consumer DeFi Prediction was a Highlight

While their overall accuracy stood at 40%, Delphi Digital shined in their assessment of infrastructure and consumer adoption.

They correctly identified 2025 as a pivotal year for "Consumer DeFi," forecasting a widespread embrace of on-chain finance.

We also witnessed a surge in crypto debit cards and tokenized U.S. stocks. Additionally, major TradFi players like Robinhood made significant moves to integrate on-chain features, confirming the trend.

Messari: 55% Accuracy, No Specific Price Targets

Despite being a data analytics platform, Messari’s predictions prioritized "trend direction" over "specific figures." In retrospect, their judgment regarding macro trends proved to be relatively accurate.

Framework Co-founder: 25% Accuracy, Showing Bias for Portfolio Projects

Next, we review some representative predictions made by individual experts last year to see how they played out.

We begin with Vance Spencer, Co-founder of Framework Ventures, focusing specifically on his crypto-related forecasts.

It is evident that Vance placed higher expectations on projects within his own portfolio, such as Glow, Daylight, and Berachain, which represent the energy and public blockchain sectors, respectively.

Furthermore, some of his quantitative targets proved to be overly aggressive, most notably the prediction of $1 billion in daily inflows for ETH ETFs.

Blockworks Co-founder: 48% Hit Rate with the Most Predictions

Blockworks co-founder Mippo (@MikeIppolito_) provided the most extensive list of predictions among all the institutions and individuals we reviewed. Despite the high volume, his accuracy remained respectable, with nearly half of his calls proving correct.

• Robinhood: His prediction regarding the rise of Robinhood was completely accurate.

• Layer 1s: He successfully identified key investment opportunities in the L1 sector, specifically Hyperliquid and SUI, both of which saw their tokens perform exceptionally well this year.

Alliance DAO (Wang Qiao & Imran): 50% Accuracy, Overly Optimistic on BTC

Alliance DAO founders Wang Qiao and Imran also shared their predictions for 2025 during a podcast discussion. We have summarized their key crypto-related viewpoints below.

Bitcoin (Missed): It is evident that both founders were overly optimistic regarding Bitcoin's performance. Even their lowest forecast of $150,000 remains significantly higher than the actual peak price achieved this year.

Prediction Markets (Hit): Conversely, their judgment regarding "prediction markets" was highly precise. It can be said that they identified this key trend a full year in advance.

Conclusion

A review of last year’s forecasts reveals several distinct patterns:

1. There is a clear negative correlation between the volume of predictions and their accuracy. Put simply: the more they said, the more they got wrong.

2. Attempts to pinpoint specific price levels or exact figures almost invariably failed to materialize.

3. Conversely, predictions regarding policy were highly reliable. Nearly every institution and individual correctly anticipated the regulatory improvements and the U.S. shift toward a crypto-friendly stance.

Ultimately, the value of these annual reports lies not in "telling you what to buy," but in "revealing what the industry is thinking." They should be viewed as indicators of market sentiment. However, using them as a strict investment guide is likely a recipe for disaster.

At the same time, keep a good habit: maintain skepticism toward any prediction that involves specific numbers, no matter which KOL, institution, or industry big shot it comes from.

This is not to criticize these industry elites. Even incorrect predictions possess value. They document what the market believed at a specific moment in time, and serve as a humble reminder that no one can truly predict the future.

Follow us on X: @blockflow_news