Tuesday Market Recap: Markets Bounce, AMD Explodes, All Eyes on Nvidia

U.S. stocks staged a full recovery on Tuesday (Feb 24).

• The Dow gained ~400 points (+0.8%)

• The S&P 500 rose 0.8%

• The Nasdaq climbed 1%

TLDR:

Software stocks led the bounce after Monday's AI-fueled panic selloff.

The catalyst: Anthropic's enterprise launch event, which announced Claude Cowork integrations with Salesforce, Slack, DocuSign, LegalZoom, FactSet, and others. The core message was simple: AI tools are "collaborators," not "replacements." Markets took the hint.

Salesforce surged 4%. Thomson Reuters soared 11%, its best day since November 2008. FactSet gained nearly 6%. IBM, which cratered 13.4% on Monday, bounced back 3%.

Still, this looks more like a relief rally than a reversal. The iShares Software ETF (IGV) remains down 27% YTD, sitting at end-of-2023 levels. Tuesday's green didn't erase the damage.

AMD's Breakout Moment

AMD jumped ~14% after Meta signed a multi-year deal to deploy up to 6 GW of AMD Instinct GPU compute capacity. Wall Street pegs the total contract value at $60-100 billion over five years.

Key details:

• First 1 GW tranche ships H2 2026, using custom MI450-architecture GPUs and sixth-gen EPYC "Venice" processors.

• AMD issued Meta a performance-linked warrant for up to 160 million shares at $0.01/share, with full vesting tied to delivery milestones and a $600 share price target (roughly 3x current).

• Expected profit: ~$3 billion per GW after warrant dilution.

This is a strategic inflection point for AMD. With ~9% market share vs. Nvidia's ~90%, landing Meta solves AMD's biggest problem: large-scale software validation. Meta has already migrated Llama 4 and Llama 5 onto AMD's ROCm stack. Analysts project AMD's AI accelerator share will rise to 15%+ by end of 2026.

Meta's play is clear: diversification. Just last week, they reaffirmed a "long-term partnership" with Nvidia. Now they've placed a $100B+ order with AMD. With $135 billion in 2026 capex, Meta isn't picking favorites. It's hedging.

Highlight of the Day: Nvidia Earnings

Nvidia reports fiscal Q4 2026 results after the close on February 25 (5:20 AM Beijing time on Feb 26).

Consensus expectations:

• Revenue: $65.56B (+67% YoY)

• Adjusted EPS: $1.50-$1.53 (+72% YoY)

• Data center revenue: ~$58.7B

• FQ1 2027 guidance: $72.4-72.5B (+64% YoY)

The bar is sky-high. Nvidia has beaten revenue estimates 13 quarters straight. But the market now demands a beat-and-raise on numbers, guidance, and narrative from Jensen Huang.

UBS notes that options markets are pricing in FQ1 revenue of $74-75B, not the $72.4B consensus. Even a "beat" on guidance could disappoint. Options imply a +/-6% move this week.

What to watch: Blackwell chip shipments and revenue (up from $7.1B last quarter), China order disruptions (H200 imports reportedly blocked), customer diversification beyond the Big Four hyperscalers, and gross margin sustainability at 73-74%.

D.A. Davidson's Gil Luria warns: "Nvidia may no longer be the market's bellwether." The valuation, he argues, already prices in peak 2026 AI demand.

Crypto: Worst Month Since the 2022 Crash

Bitcoin briefly broke below $62,858 on Tuesday and is struggling to hold $63,000. ETH sits around $1,870. SOL dropped to ~$78.

February's damage: BTC is down 25%+ for the month, on track for its worst monthly performance since June 2022 (Luna/3AC/Celsius era). Bitcoin has lost over 50% from its October 2025 high of $126,198.

The numbers are grim. The Fear & Greed Index is pinned at 5 ("extreme fear"). 24-hour liquidations topped $470M. On-chain data shows net U.S. demand for Bitcoin has been negative for 40 consecutive days. Hedge funds are exiting BTC spot ETFs. The shadows of Wu Jihan's BTC liquidation and Vitalik's ongoing ETH sales continue to weigh on sentiment.

Technical analysts warn: a break below $60,000 opens the door to $52,500.

*Notes: BTC has now bounced back to $65,000.

Gold Pulls Back from $5,240

Gold retreated ~1.2% on Tuesday to $5,160-$5,180 after hitting $5,240 on Monday. The equity rally reduced safe-haven demand, and a firmer dollar added pressure.

But the pullback was modest. Trump's proposed 15% global tariff (10% implemented Tuesday, 15% executive order in preparation), unresolved U.S.-EU trade tensions, and Middle East risks keep the bid alive. Silver slipped to $85-86/oz.

Today's Nvidia earnings are the next catalyst. A strong report pressures gold; a miss sends haven flows rushing back.

Summary

Tuesday was a breather, not a verdict. Software stocks stabilized on Anthropic's reassurance. AMD got its breakout deal from Meta. Equities caught a technical bounce.

However, the real test is incoming. Nvidia's numbers will tell us whether the AI boom is still accelerating into 2027 or peaking in 2026.

Jensen Huang will speak at 22:00 PM UTC time. The market is listening.

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