PEPE0.00 -6.30%

TON2.13 -5.08%

BNB1067.70 -2.34%

SOL181.79 -6.62%

XRP2.38 -4.48%

DOGE0.19 -5.37%

TRX0.32 -1.27%

ETH3814.03 -4.98%

BTC107832.43 -3.89%

SUI2.42 -7.28%

Gold vs Bitcoin: Is It Time to Start Rebalancing Your Portfolio?

By JuneOct 22, 2025

The macro environment is shifting from defensive positioning toward risk assets as geopolitical tensions ease and monetary policy turns accommodative. Gold dominated in 2025, but the catalysts now favor Bitcoin as liquidity rotates back into growth assets.

Pivoting from gold to Bitcoin in late October 2025 could be a strategic move for growth-focused investors who are comfortable with risk and volatility. If you believe in Bitcoin’s long-term thesis as “digital gold,” the current market environment may offer an attractive entry point, especially with the war between Ukraine and Russia potentially nearing an end.

However, this isn’t a one-size-fits-all decision. Gold continues to outperform as a defensive asset during periods of economic uncertainty, while BTC’s performance this year has been comparatively choppy despite recovering from mid-year weakness.

To compare performance objectively, we tracked the prices of BTC, BNB, ETH, and gold (XAUT) from January 2025 to October 2025. Assuming an initial investment of $10,000 in each asset:

From the results, gold delivered the strongest return with a 56.6% gain, followed closely by BNB at 52.4%. BTC and ETH lagged behind this year, each delivering around 15.9% growth. Despite Bitcoin’s long-term potential narrative, gold has clearly been the top-performing wealth preserver in 2025 so far, while BNB has emerged as a surprise high performer among crypto assets.

Rotation Narrative Building on CT

On CT, many are now calling for a rotation into Bitcoin and crypto following news that the war between Russia and Ukraine may be coming to an end.

This shift in sentiment is being driven by three key factors:

  • Weakening US Dollar Index (DXY): A declining dollar makes dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin more attractive globally.

  • The incoming interest rate cut cycle: Lower interest rates reduce yields in traditional assets such as bonds, encouraging investors to move into higher-risk assets like crypto.

  • Gold/BTC experiencing sharp pullbacks: A signal that investors are shifting preference to Bitcoin. Gold dropped nearly 8 percent in a single day after reports surfaced that Europe and Ukraine are preparing for a peace agreement with Russia.

With capital flowing out of safe havens, investors are starting to position for what many are calling "the great rotation" back into risk assets like Bitcoin.

Polymarket Pricing in Peace

However, the next market move is still likely to be influenced by Trump. According to prediction markets on Polymarket, even though Trump publicly stated he will not meet Xi Jinping, the odds of a meeting happening by October 31 remain high at 72%.

Other related geopolitical markets also reflect growing optimism around a potential US-China de-escalation:

  • US-China tariff agreement by November 10: 77%

  • 100 percent tariff on China in effect by November 1: only 14%

These probabilities suggest that the market is pricing in a potential easing of tensions rather than escalation, which could trigger further risk-on sentiment across equities and crypto.

Gold vs Bitcoin?

Gold has proven its defensive value in 2025, but macro conditions now favor a gradual shift toward higher-risk assets. Bitcoin stands to benefit the most from this rotation, but timing will be key. For now, the smarter strategy may not be choosing between gold or Bitcoin, but rebalancing gradually in anticipation of the next macro wave.

Fun Fact: Historically, Bitcoin almost always closes October in the green. If this month ends negative, it would be the first red October in six years since 2018.

 

Connect with us:
Fast News: t.me/blockflownews
Insights & Trends: x.com/BlockFlow_News   

June joined the crypto space in 2021. She's passionate about data, blockchain innovation, and everything Web3.