Who Should Launch USDH? An Overview of Issuers and Polymarket Odds

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By JuneSep 11, 2025

The battle to launch USDH has drawn proposals from some of the biggest names in stablecoin infrastructure, each with different issuance models, revenue structures, and growth strategies. While Paxos and Ethena are leading the conversation on CT, prediction markets like Polymarket show strong odds in favor of Native Markets.

The race for USDH is heating up.

Multiple stablecoin issuers have submitted competing proposals to launch USDH, each with distinct approaches to issuance, revenue sharing, and user incentives.

The table below compares key differences across issuance models, revenue allocation to Hyperliquid, and incentive structures offered by each candidate.

Each contender brings different strengths to the table, from regulatory compliance and market experience to technical innovation and ecosystem integration. The second comparison examines their track records, regulatory status, and core competencies.

Polymarket Odds on USDH Proposals

The battle for the USDH ticker is heating up, with Polymarket prediction markets painting a very different picture than social media sentiment suggests.

On Crypto Twitter, the most popular proposals appear to be Paxos, with its PayPal and Venmo integrations, and Ethena, which has a strong track record with USDe and has pledged to return 95% of net revenue back to Hyperliquid.

However, the Polymarket prediction market tells a different story. Trading volume has reached nearly $2 million ($1.7M so far), and the frontrunner is clearly Native Markets with 71% probability, followed by Paxos (23%), Ethena (5%), Sky (2%), and Frax/Agora at under 1%.

The market resolves based on Hyperliquid's on-chain validator vote on September 14.

The startup, Native Markets, founded by Max Fiege, Anish Agnihotri, and MC Lader, was created specifically to build the optimal stablecoin for Hyperliquid's vision of becoming "a blockchain to house all finance." Their DeFi-native expertise appears to resonate with the ecosystem.

Since the decision ultimately rests on validator voting, Native Markets may have a structural advantage.

The figure below from @ArthuronHL shows the voting weight distribution of each team.

According to the USDH Vote Tracking Dashboard by @AIC_Hugo, Native Market currently leads with 33.73%, followed by Paxos (11.52%) and Ethena (8.25%)

The outcome of the USDH vote will shape Hyperliquid’s next chapter, deciding not only who issues its native stablecoin but also how value flows back to the ecosystem. While Polymarket odds currently favor Native Markets, the validator vote will be the final arbiter.