Polymarket Signals Escalating U.S.-Iran-Israel Conflict: Traders Predict Strikes, Delayed Responses, and Prolonged Iran-Israel Tensions

Polymarket traders are closely watching the unfolding situation between Iran, Israel, and the United States, actively speculating on potential military actions, diplomatic efforts, and regional impacts.

Note: All Polymarket data and probabilities referenced in this article are current as of the time of writing.

Traders Anticipate Continued Strikes

Polymarket traders are actively speculating on potential strike events involving Israel, the U.S., and Iran. The data reveals a clear sequencing narrative:

• Israeli strikes: Highly likely and imminent in the coming week.

• U.S. strikes: Unlikely in the coming week.

• Iranian response: Expected to be delayed, possibly late June.

• Regime stability: Traders broadly expect the Iranian leadership to endure.

Israeli Strikes: Highly Likely in the Coming Week

The market for “Israel strikes Iran on...?” holds some of the strongest probabilities currently trading. Traders overwhelmingly believe Israeli military action has either already occurred or is imminent.

Key Takeaways:

• June 23: Strikes are near certain.

• June 24–27: Traders expect sustained Israeli operations.

• June 28–30: Probabilities taper off but remain notable.

Recent market activity shows rising confidence for strikes on June 25 and 26, suggesting evolving information made these dates more likely. Expectations for June 30 dropped by 8%, indicating lower confidence for extended strikes beyond that window.

US Strikes: Unlikely in the Coming Week

In contrast to Israeli action, U.S. strikes are priced as less likely, particularly in the immediate term.

• Highest probability: 17% for June 28–29.

• Earlier dates: Probabilities consistently decline.

This suggests traders see limited U.S. involvement for now, with a small chance of escalation if the situation persists.

Iranian Response: Likely Delayed Retaliation

Interestingly, traders are not betting on an instant Iranian military response.

• June 23: Odds have dropped to about 13%.

• June 30: Highest probability, currently at 55%.

The market indicates that a delayed, calculated Iranian response is more likely than an immediate retaliation.

Regime Stability: Confidence in Survival

Despite the anticipated strikes, traders overwhelmingly believe the Iranian regime will survive. The market gives a 68% chance the regime will endure through the end of 2025.

This probability has increased as traders observed that initial Israeli strikes did not trigger broader instability or regional collapse.

A Shift Toward Prolonged Conflict: July-August as the Next Hope

Polymarket data shows traders have largely abandoned expectations for a ceasefire before July. The steep declines in Israel-Iran markets reflect a rapid adjustment to ongoing military developments, especially Israeli strikes.

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire before August, priced at 39%, now represents the most likely window for de-escalation, though traders remain cautious. With Israeli military operations heavily priced in, users anticipate a prolonged conflict without short-term diplomatic breakthroughs. Ceasefire probabilities dropped sharply after each confirmed military action, reinforcing the belief that a resolution is unlikely soon.

Market Breakdown: Ceasefire Probabilities Continue to Slide

Polymarket traders have steadily reduced expectations for any near-term ceasefire involving Israel, Iran, or the U.S. Ceasefire markets show a clear loss of confidence, reflecting traders' consensus that current escalations will likely persist into July.

• Israel × Iran Ceasefire Before July (~15%): Traders have significantly lowered expectations for a ceasefire before July.

• Israel × Iran Ceasefire Before July 15 (~29%): Traders are slightly more optimistic but the trend is still declining. Continued Israeli military operations are expected through mid-July.

• U.S. × Iran Ceasefire Before July (~11%): The probability continues to fall with no signs of active U.S. Diplomacy. Traders do not expect U.S. intervention in the immediate term.

• U.S. × Iran Ceasefire Before August (~39%): This is currently seen as the most likely window for de-escalation. Traders believe the U.S. may push for a pause in conflict by late summer.

Polymarket traders assign a 16% chance of a US invasion of Iran in 2025, with recent activity showing a slight uptick since June 22. While the risk remains moderate, it’s no longer entirely dismissed.

In contrast, the probability of a formal US war declaration is just 12%, sharply down from earlier levels. Traders broadly expect any US-Iran conflict to remain limited, with little chance of an official war being declared.

Polymarket Traders Doubt U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal, See Fordow Facility as Likely Target

As Middle East tensions escalate, Polymarket traders are actively speculating on nuclear-related events. While military actions are widely expected, a full-scale nuclear crisis remains unlikely.

The potential destruction of Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility before July is the most closely watched market, currently holding a 35% chance. The chart spiked to 82% on June 22, before quickly correcting, suggesting that while traders briefly saw an imminent strike as likely, confidence later faded.

The chance of a follow-up U.S. strike on Fordow stands at just 11%, indicating traders believe any major attack would likely be limited to a single event.

Traders are pricing a 17% chance that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon in 2025, and only a 14% chance of a nuclear test that same year. These markets have remained stable, indicating that while the nuclear program remains a concern, an imminent breakthrough is not widely expected.

Besides, Polymarket users place a 16% chance on a strike targeting Israel’s Dimona nuclear base by June, suggesting minimal concern for direct escalation toward Israel’s nuclear infrastructure.

Interestingly, the chance that Israel will publicly confirm its nuclear arsenal in 2025 is only 11%, reinforcing the view that Israel will likely continue its long-standing policy of nuclear ambiguity despite regional tensions.

Diplomacy: Traders See Talks Stalled, But 2025 Deal Still Possible

Polymarket traders remain largely pessimistic about short-term diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran.

• The chance of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal before July sits at just 3%, after previously trading around 30-40% in May.

• Similarly, the chance of a deal before August has dropped significantly, now standing at just 13%. Earlier in June, this market was trading between 30-40%, suggesting a moderately optimistic view just weeks ago.

• The probability of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks resuming before July is just 11%, reinforcing the market’s expectation that no diplomatic breakthroughs are imminent.

• Additionally, the chance that Trump will formally exit Iran nuclear negotiations stands at 12%, indicating that traders see little impact from his potential policy moves in the current window.

However, long-term diplomacy holds more hope. The probability of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by the end of 2025 is currently 35%, following a 12% recent increase. While this market has seen heavy volatility with probabilities fluctuating between 30% and 75% in recent months, it signals that traders still see a path to a potential agreement in the coming year, despite current tensions.

Action Over Resolution

Polymarket data shows a consistent trend across nuclear-related markets: military activity is considered more likely than immediate diplomatic breakthroughs. The Fordow nuclear facility is viewed as the most probable focus of potential strikes, though traders assign low probabilities to subsequent follow-up actions. Diplomatic outcomes, including nuclear agreements, are generally priced with low confidence, suggesting that traders anticipate limited progress in negotiations for now.

Polymarket Traders Dismiss These Scenarios: The Lowest Probability Bets on Iran Conflict

While several markets show elevated concerns about military escalation, nuclear developments, and diplomatic breakdowns, some scenarios are almost universally dismissed by Polymarket traders.

War Declarations Before July: Near-Zero Confidence

1. U.S. Official War Declaration on Iran Before July (~1%)

Traders overwhelmingly reject the likelihood of a formal U.S. war declaration, with the market flat at 1% despite rising military activity.

2. Israel Declares War on Iran Before July (~1%)

The market for Israel formally declaring war is similarly low, with brief spikes quickly fading.

3. Iran Declares War on Israel Before July (~5%)

Iran’s likelihood of declaring war on Israel is slightly higher but trending downward.

Invasions of Iran Before July: Unlikely

1. U.S. Invasion of Iran Before July (~2%)

The prospect of a U.S. ground invasion is nearly dismissed, with the market stable at 2% despite minor volatility around June 22-23.

2. Israel's Invasion of Iran Before July (~2%)

A full-scale Israeli ground invasion is also viewed as highly unlikely, with the market consistently near rock-bottom levels.

Traders See No Near-Term Recovery for Suez Canal Traffic

Polymarket traders overwhelmingly dismiss the possibility that Suez Canal traffic will recover to pre-Houthi levels before July. The market currently prices this scenario at less than 1% probability, reflecting extremely low confidence in a rapid resolution.

The chart shows a steady decline since March, with no meaningful rallies even during periods of temporary optimism.

Prolonged Conflict Expected as Full-Scale Escalations Unlikely

Based on the Polymarket data, traders currently expect the situation to remain active but contained, with targeted strikes and delayed diplomatic progress shaping the near-term landscape. Full-scale invasions and formal war declarations are not widely expected, and ceasefire prospects before July are viewed as limited. While the potential for longer-term agreements remains part of the conversation, traders appear to anticipate an extended period of tension and ongoing uncertainty in the region.