ARK Invest Raises 2030 Bitcoin Price Target to $2.4M on Institutional Adoption

April 24, 2025 – ARK Invest has updated its 2030 price target for Bitcoin (BTC), projecting a bull case scenario of $2.4 million per coin, according to its latest report released on April 24, 2025. The updated forecast reflects aggressive modeling of institutional adoption and Bitcoin’s growing role as a global financial asset.

In its report, ARK Invest revised its earlier projections, increasing its bull case target from $1.5 million to $2.4 million, driven by a new experimental prediction model, which factors in bitcoin’s liquid supply by discounting lost or long-held coins. The firm’s base case now stands at $1.2 million, with a bear case of $0.5 million, representing compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 53% and 32%, respectively.

Key Drivers of the Bullish Forecast

ARK attributes the optimistic outlook to several factors:

Institutional investment contributes the most, which projected 6.5% allocation of the $200 trillion global market portfolio (excluding gold) by 2030.

Moreover, with its scarcity due to lost supply and halving events, Bitcoin is increasingly recognized as “digital gold”. ARK has predicted that Bitcoin could capture up to 60% of gold’s $18 trillion market cap (2024 figures) by the end of 2030 in a bull case assumption.

The report highlights the potential emerging market in developing nations—also known as “non-advanced” economies. “In our view, this bitcoin use case has the greatest potential for capital accrual,” wrote by the report. “In addition to its store-of-value characteristics, bitcoin’s low barriers to entry provide individuals with internet connections in emerging markets access to an investment alternative that may provide capital appreciation over time—as opposed to defensive allocations like the US dollar—to preserve purchasing power and avoid the devaluations of their own national currencies.”

Additionally, ARK’s price predictions for Bitcoin take into account how nations and businesses plan their Bitcoin treasury holdings, alongside the evolution of Bitcoin financial service offerings.

Bitcoin’s Supply Dynamics and Market Role

ARK’s report also notes Bitcoin’s supply dynamics, with long-term holders controlling a record 40% of the supply in 2024, and the impact of the fourth halving in April 2024, which reduced block rewards to 3.125 BTC. These factors, combined with a projected active supply of 60% by 2030, underpin the firm’s bullish outlook.

ARK’s forecast aligns with growing optimism in the crypto market. The firm’s earlier 2030 prediction of $1.5 million, published in January 2025, had already set a high bar, but the updated $2.4 million target reflects even stronger confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential. However, whether Bitcoin will achieve the $2.4 million target still depends on sustained institutional adoption and favorable macroeconomic conditions.