Compiled by Waiwai Y.

Guest:

Arthur Hayes

Host:

Bonnie & David Lin

Podcast:

Bonnie Blockchain

Original Title:

關鍵！你的加密貨幣可能不漲了！但這些資產可以買│Arthur Hayes│比特幣大會 Vegas 2025【邦妮區塊鏈】feat. ⁨@TheDavidLinReport

Air Date: June 16, 2025

In this episode of the podcast, Arthur Hayes, the inventor of cryptocurrency perpetual contracts, shares his expectations for the future economy. Having spent most of his career in Asia, he has an in-depth understanding of Asian financial markets. He directly addresses financial questions that even Asian politicians cannot answer. What is his view on the future trends of the crypto market? Why does he believe that most of the altcoins you hold will never rise again? How does he assess the price trajectory of Bitcoin?

Key Takeaways from Arthur Hayes:

• Bitcoin will hit 250,000 by the end of 2025.

• There’s still lots of retail interest in Bitcoin. It’s been performing well, and it’s the easiest one to understand.

• Most altcoins are probably not gonna go up in price again because they don’t have product-market fit. They don’t generate revenue or bring value back to token holders.

• When picking altcoins you should look at narrative — and now it’s all about cash flow.

• If you create all this money and could spend it on anything, spending it on buying Bitcoin is probably not going to be the best way to get votes.

• Traders don’t really care about decentralization. They care about liquidity and having a good range of products to trade.

• Right now, it’s a perfectly competitive market. No one has any real innovation on products, and everyone charges the same fees. It all comes down to marketing.

• There’s going to be a lot of intergenerational conflict. I don’t know how it’ll play out, but it could lead to a lot of money printing in the end. That’s an easy way for governments to solve this problem.

Bitcoin Price Expectation

David:

You talked about Bitcoin market a lot in the press, but just give us a sense of the timeline of bitcoin to a million by 2028, you said 250,000 by end of the year. Is that still your timeline?

Arthur Hayes:

Yeah, I think that we will get to 250,000 by the end of the year. It'll be bumpy along the way, obviously. But that's sort of my end of year price target. And then a million dollar bitcoin as well. I think in the realm of 9 trillion-ish dollars will be printed between now and that period of time. The government will support entities that are allowed to create mortgages in the US. They will print 5 trillion. You will probably have up to $1 trillion purchased by the banking system due to supplemental leverage ratio exemptions and purchasing things that the foreigners are selling.

The banks are gonna free because they now don't have to handle all this equity capital against their treasury book. They can lend more into the real American economy. You’re gonna see the amount of loans going to manufacturing firms increase, which is, again, an increase in credit and that will make its way into crypto.

David:

When the Fed printed unlimited QE back in 2020, all asset classes went up. It wasn't just bitcoin. This is good news for Bitcoin, but it could be good news for everything else, including stocks and gold as well. Why would bitcoin in particular outperform everything else?

Arthur Hayes:

Bitcoin has a fixed supply. It's obviously a much smaller market in terms of market cap. If you have a lot of things chasing a very small door, then the price goes up on the margin. That's why bitcoin has been the best performing financial asset in the last 15 years.

Bitcoin new highs with little retail investors' interests

David:

Does money printing lead to more Degen activity? Usually.

Arthur Hayes:

Yes. Because if you don’t have a lot of financial assets and you’re watching all this inflation happen around you, you have to use more leverage with the little bit of savings you have.

David:

Why is there less Degen interest now than in 2021?

Like the retail interest in altcoins. Some people also track crypto channel volume and viewership volume, which is significantly lower now than four years ago, despite Bitcoin and many other things reaching new highs.

Arthur Hayes:

I think a lot of these coins haven’t performed very well. They were priced wrong — too expensive. When the hype is over and you look at the fundamentals, you ask, “Where are the clients? Where’s the revenue?” The answer is often, “Oh, we don’t have any.” Yet these things are sitting at a $5 billion FDV. It’s hard to 10x that. Going from $5 million to $50 million is easy, but going from $5 billion to $50 billion is much harder on a marginal price basis. So I think the prices were just too high.

David:

Is it too far-fetched to say that Bitcoin has become an institutional instrument now, and the retail crowd is no longer interested?

Arthur Hayes:

I’m sure there’s still lots of retail interest in Bitcoin. It’s been performing well, and it’s the easiest one to understand.

Your Altcoins May No Longer Go Up

Bonnie:

Everyone's asking is altcoin season coming? And people are saying, hey, this cycle, we have so much garbage. What is happening now?

Arthur Hayes:

Well, I think most altcoins are probably not gonna go up in price again because they don’t have product-market fit. They don’t generate revenue or bring value back to token holders. They’re high FDV, low float, VC-backed coins, and they’re not going to perform well. That’s why you’ve seen projects like Berachain or Monad — whenever they launch — go down only. These hyped, big fundraising round projects will struggle to increase in price because they don’t have clients spending money.

But there are projects with product-market fit, where people spend money, and that money flows from the protocol to token holders. I think a small subset of such projects will do very well — like Pendle, EtherFi.

Bonnie:

What about all the VC coins from the last cycle? They were doing very well. What happened in this cycle?

Arthur Hayes:

Again, no product-market fit. If you have a very high valuation to grow into but no clients using your chain or product, it’s very hard to generate interest after prices go down.

Bonnie:

I think in one of your interviews, you said Bitcoin dominance will hit 70%. Is that when we might see altcoin season coming?

Arthur Hayes:

I still think that’s gonna happen.

Bonnie:

70%?

Arthur Hayes:

Very much. It’s at 65% now.

David:

So still more outperformance in Bitcoin before altcoins?

Arthur Hayes:

In general, yes. Bitcoin dominance is heavily influenced by Ethereum. If Ethereum doesn’t move, it’s hard for that ratio to change significantly. I think Ethereum is very hated right now. People don’t like it. If I were to bet on something changing this cycle, I think it could be Ethereum.

How Do You Choose Altcoins?

Bonnie:

How do you personally pick altcoins? What do you look at?

Arthur Hayes:

Narrative — and now it’s all about cash flow. Does the project generate a lot of cash flow? As an investor, do I get paid by supporting the project and owning its coin?

Bonnie:

And not the valuation?

Arthur Hayes:

For early-stage stuff, we’re very specific and have caps on how much we’ll pay. But for liquid tokens, it’s really about cash flow coming to me.

Bonnie:

Don’t you feel that narratives change too quickly? It’s very hard to catch on.

Arthur Hayes:

They do, but if you pay the right price, it doesn’t matter. If you buy at a low enough price, you’ll most likely make money when it launches. But if you pay a high price while chasing the narrative and trying to get into every big deal, that’s when you lose money.

The Inventor of Cryptocurrency Contracts

Bonnie:

Could you briefly share your inspiration and how you came up with perpetual contracts (perps)?

Arthur Hayes:

Basically, my cofounders and I used to answer all the support tickets ourselves. Many of our clients didn’t understand futures contracts. They didn’t understand why the price was different from spot or why the contracts expired. So we thought, can we create a product that has no expiry but is highly leveraged? That was the impetus for creating the perpetual swap.

We tinkered with it until we developed the product everyone is familiar with today, launching it in May 2016. Initially, most people hated it, but over time, they started trading it because it solved a problem for us—it saved us from answering the same questions repeatedly, which was very time-consuming.

Bonnie:

Do you trade perps?

Arthur Hayes:

I don’t usually trade on leverage. If I buy anything, I buy it on a spot basis. I encourage people who have the time and patience to master their craft to trade using leverage. But if you don’t have the time or patience, don’t use leverage.

Bonnie:

Okay, so let’s say I were to use perps. What’s the first thing I should think of? Is it risk, position size, or something else?

Arthur Hayes:

Have a goal. What is your goal? For example, you might think, “I want to make this percentage.” Then, define your downside and upside. Decide when to cut losses and when to add to your position. Have a plan before you start trading, because once emotions take over, you’re more likely to make mistakes.

What Caused The Taiwanese Dollar's Sudden Frenzy

Bonnie:

Our banker couldn’t explain why the Taiwanese dollar jumped 10% in a couple of days compared to USD.

Arthur Hayes:

It’s quite interesting. I won’t go too deep into it, but essentially there are some insightful articles written in the Financial Times by Brad Setzer and another economist, documenting how Taiwanese life insurers are probably some of the richest institutions in the world.

Taiwan is obviously a big global manufacturing hub, especially in semiconductors. The government and central bank have a policy of keeping the Taiwan dollar very weak. To do this, they create Taiwan-dollar local liquidity, which is why apartments are so expensive in Taipei and other cities. They accumulate USD, but they don’t want to look like currency manipulators to the U.S. government. So, they funnel these dollars to Taiwanese life insurers, and these insurers invest abroad — buying bonds and entering structured derivatives with large banks.

These insurers have significant U.S. Treasury bond exposure. Additionally, hedge funds often fund themselves in Taiwan dollars due to its persistent weakness encouraged by the government, engaging in massive carry trades.

What happened in early May was a fear that Taiwanese life insurers might start pulling out of the Treasury market, repatriating money back into the Taiwan dollar. This caused hedge funds to exit their carry trades, leading to them being stopped out. That’s why you saw the 6-7% move in the Taiwan dollar.

I think the authorities didn’t step in to reverse the flows because they wanted to show the U.S. (especially during negotiations with the Trump administration) that they’re not manipulating their currency anymore. They accepted that the Taiwan dollar would strengthen, and this resulted in the massive move. I expect the Taiwan dollar to continue strengthening over time.

Bonnie:

Do you think that’s going to happen in other Asian regions?

Arthur Hayes:

Yes, and it’s already started. You’ve seen it in South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand. Any of these countries running persistent programs of currency weakness, accumulating dollars in their reserve account, and investing abroad will likely see similar trends. That money is coming back.

Will The U.S. Government Really Step In To Buy Bitcoin?

David:

One particular risk you've highlighted is the potential for the next administration to write off the strategic reserve completely if the Democrats win in the next cycle, 2028. If they cancel the strategic reserve, would we see a lot of selling pressure?

Arthur Hayes:

Maybe. It depends on how much Bitcoin is accumulated and what the financial pressures are on the government. I think they have about 200,000 Bitcoin now, seized from people by the U.S. government. That could be sold if there's budget pressure, as there is money there to sell.

David:

Can they sell it? But do you see them buying more Bitcoin? They haven't done that yet.

Arthur Hayes:

I don't think it's politically palatable to buy Bitcoin and print money. If you're going to print money, it's usually for things like tax cuts, building infrastructure, or hospitals — things that benefit a broader segment of people rather than just a small sector who own Bitcoin.

David:

Are you disappointed that the Bitcoin strategic reserves will not buy more Bitcoin?

Bonnie:

Why does it not buy more? I heard arguments about them selling some gold to buy Bitcoin.

Arthur Hayes:

They could, as anything is possible. But it's bad politics. If you create all this money and could spend it on anything, spending it on buying Bitcoin is probably not going to be the best way to get votes.

David:

They've already got their votes, so they don't need to do that again.

U.S. Financial Regulation and Money Printing

Bonnie:

You said there is capital control in the U.S. coming on foreign investment ownership?

Arthur Hayes:

So I think they’re going to start by taking away the withholding tax exemption. There’s already talk about this happening. Currently, foreigners don’t pay the 30% tax that Americans do for earning interest on U.S. bonds. If they remove that exemption, it might make Treasuries less attractive to foreign investors, who may decide to own something else instead. I think that’s going to start happening.

Bonnie:

Does that mean a market crash?

Arthur Hayes:

No, because they’ll print the money to ensure that all the foreigners who leave are replaced by domestic buyers funded by printed money.

David:

On that note, in early April, we saw bonds go down along with stocks. Bitcoin yields went down as well, and bond yields went up. I wonder if capital controls could recreate that kind of scenario where all asset classes decline slightly, leading to less liquidity in the U.S. system?

Arthur Hayes:

I think it will be rolled out slowly over time, so you’re not going to see a knee-jerk reaction. The current administration has likely learned that massive, sudden changes can create outcomes they don’t want, like heightened bond market volatility or things moving in the wrong direction.

If capital controls are phased in gradually, they’ll ensure that the buying is replaced. Whether it’s the Fed, the Treasury, the banking system, or some other private sector actor allowed to create credit cheaply, they’ll replace the foreign buyers who are forced to sell these assets.

David:

Stocks have re-correlated with the 10-year yield, and so has Bitcoin. Do you see that correlation holding between these three asset classes?

Arthur Hayes:

No, I think there will be some risk-off events that will heighten market volatility. Over time, Bitcoin will assert itself as a hedge against these risks.

Buy All Assets? Or Buy Non-U.S. Assets?

Bonnie:

You once said, "Buy everything, Chi-merica lives." And then you talked about their breakup. Are they getting married or breaking up?

Arthur Hayes:

I think they’re going to break up over time, but it’s not going to happen as quickly as some people think.

Bonnie:

How long are we talking?

Arthur Hayes:

It could take decades.

Bonnie:

Oh, I see. Okay. So tell me more about what happens if foreign money leaves — what does that look like for the global system?

Arthur Hayes:

Foreign money flowed into the U.S. because U.S. markets — whether it’s stocks, bonds, or real estate — have been the best-performing globally. If that money starts leaving and goes back into local markets, the U.S. markets won’t perform as well.

Instead, it might be better to own assets in like Taiwan, Indonesia, Thailand, or other emerging markets. These countries will see their currencies appreciate as foreign money is repatriated. This will make their consumers wealthier since they can purchase more goods. Additionally, businesses may start building domestically to serve this growing demand, fueling local economies.

U.S. Stablecoin Legislation

Bonnie:

And the stablecoin bill — is that a way to force issuers to buy more T-bills?

Arthur Hayes:

I don’t think so. I think it’s more about allowing banks to engage in the same kind of trade that Tether does. If I’m a bank and I’m now allowed to create my own stablecoin, I can onboard deposits at essentially zero cost. Then, if they remove the supplemental leverage ratio (SLR) exemption, I can buy T-bills and capture 100% of that income.

Bonnie:

I’ve heard this argument from one of the exchange owners. He said other countries shouldn’t try so hard anymore because the U.S. has already won the crypto or Bitcoin war. After all, the underlying asset or how people purchase Bitcoin is with USDT, which is USD-backed.

Arthur Hayes:

I don’t think so. The biggest revenue-generating market in the world for crypto is Korean traders. So, I’m not exactly sure the U.S. has "won" anything — it’s just another player in the game.

Open Interest Indicators

David:

Open interest in Bitcoin futures reached unprecedented levels recently — let me check my notes — $89.80 billion on May 22nd, a $15 billion increase in just five days. This highlights unprecedented leverage. What does this signal mean to you?

Arthur Hayes:

It just shows more interest in the space, right? Obviously, we’ve rallied toward all-time highs, and more leveraged positions are being opened with the expectation that we’re going to run past $110K or much higher quickly.

David:

In your past experience running BitMEX, whenever open interest in futures spikes, what tends to happen next?

Arthur Hayes:

I think we want to look at basis expansion — the premium of Bitcoin futures compared to the spot price. If that premium grows significantly, it could signal something. But I don’t think it’s anything crazy yet, like 10%.

David:

Are there any indicators on BitMEX in particular that consistently signaled huge market movements afterward?

Arthur Hayes:

No, I haven’t identified any consistent indicators. But to be honest, I didn’t look that closely.

Decentralized Exchanges Being Hunted Down (Hyperliquid)

Bonnie:

There was this incident with the Jelly meme coin, and it sparked the argument: if it’s actually decentralized, and if centralized exchanges can kill you with just $10 million, is it still safe to use DEXs like that?

Arthur Hayes:

Well, I think it’s pretty clear that it’s probably less decentralized than advertised. It seems like the people in charge of Hyperliquid decided to prioritize preserving the buying power of their HLP token rather than adhering to what the market dictated with the liquidations of the Jelly token.

On one hand, yes, it’s not very decentralized. On the other hand, it shows they care about the HLP token, which acts as the backstop for many of their markets. From that perspective, I feel more comfortable trading there, because, at the end of the day, traders don’t really care about decentralization. They care about liquidity and have a good range of products to trade with.

So if Hyperliquid offers those features in a semi-decentralized way, then fine — let’s trade there.

Intense Competition Between Exchanges And Banks

Bonnie:

A lot of centralized exchanges are heading toward payments because that seems like the obvious next step. How do you see this exchange game playing out in 10 years?

Arthur Hayes:

Right now, it’s a perfectly competitive market. No one has any real innovation on products, and everyone charges the same fees. It all comes down to marketing. It’s very difficult to stay in the centralized exchange game, especially now. If you’re in the U.S., it’s even tougher because banks will soon offer the same brokerage services. It’s going to be hard for exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken to maintain their profit margins if banks like JP Morgan don’t allow their clients to buy Bitcoin.

David:

Speaking of Coinbase, several large exchanges have IPO’d in the last couple of weeks. This sparks a new trend of crypto becoming mainstream in the S&P 500. Coinbase, for instance, is listed in the S&P 500. Here’s a two-part question, and I’ll ask the first part first: Do you think all investors in the S&P now have to be aware that they’re indirectly exposed to Bitcoin through the index?

Arthur Hayes:

I don’t really care. A lot of people just invest in the index, and they own ETFs. ETFs own a lot of stuff, right? Stuff that may or may not align with their particular sensibilities. But they don’t care — they just want to be in the index.

David:

With exchanges and centralized exchanges becoming more mainstream, do you see a scenario where they start siphoning deposits from regular people or large financial institutions like JP Morgan or Bank of America?

Arthur Hayes:

I don’t think so, because these banks have better distribution networks than crypto companies.

David:

So there’s no direct competition in the foreseeable future?

Arthur Hayes:

There absolutely is direct competition. If JP Morgan offers the ability to buy Bitcoin and Coinbase does too, it’s the same Bitcoin you’re buying. So then it comes down to fees. Can JP Morgan offer zero-fee trading because they make so much money elsewhere, while Coinbase relies heavily on its high-margin brokerage business? If JP Morgan or Bank of America says, “Zero-fee Bitcoin trading: bring your balances and deposits here,” what is Coinbase going to do?

David:

JP Morgan’s chief, Jamie Dimon, did say he’s allowing people to buy Bitcoin but won’t custody it. If you were to build another BitMEX today, how would you prepare yourself to compete with the traffic entering the crypto space next?

Arthur Hayes:

I’d go more “degen.” I wouldn’t try to compete in Bitcoin trading — that’s going to be a loss-leading product.

Focus on meme coins, leaning into launchpads. There’s a lot that can be done to improve the new issue process. There’s more revenue to be earned there than competing in Bitcoin/USD trading, which is going to be a low-margin, highly competitive market.

The Squid Game Of The Eastern World

Bonnie:

You spend a lot of time in Asia, and I want to know what you’ve learned about money and investment there that’s very different from the US.

Arthur Hayes:

Don’t trust the government. I don’t think any Asians actually trust their government. So, they’re a lot more skeptical of things and save in different ways. Obviously, gold is big in Asia, and property investment too. But I think the mentality is just different.

Bonnie:

Is it more degen or more conservative?

Arthur Hayes:

It depends on how you’re asking. I think it’s a whole range of people.

Bonnie:

Why is Korea trading so much?

Arthur Hayes:

Very high internet penetration, a strong gaming culture, very ethnically homogeneous, and very low opportunities for most individuals to escape a tough life. They’re highly educated, but there are no real money-making jobs in Korea. So, they’re either trading stocks or, now, trading crypto. Everyone’s trying to get ahead because it’s such a brutal rat race in Korea.

The Investment Perspective Of The New Generation

Bonnie:

I think in your chat with Anthony Pompliano, you mentioned how the older generation is wealthy and trying to sell their assets to the younger generation for retirement. But the younger generation, we’re not really buying or storing things—we’re paying for experiences. How does that play out?

Arthur Hayes:

It’s going to be interesting to see how regulations play out for crypto or any other digital assets. The boomers have stocks to sell, but does anyone want these stocks? Maybe to some extent. Do they want that big suburban house or an apartment in the city? I don’t know.

This could become a massive issue: the older generation needs to sell their assets to fund their retirement, but the younger generation may not want to buy those assets. How does that square up? Will governments increase taxes because the value of boomer-owned assets goes down and they can’t fund their retirement? Will they tax the young more to pay for the retirees? And will the younger generation accept that? I don’t know.

Bonnie:

What’s your guess?

Arthur Hayes:

I think there’s going to be a lot of intergenerational conflict. I don’t know how it’ll play out, but it could lead to a lot of money printing in the end. That’s an easy way for governments to solve this problem.

Arthur's Fund Strategy

David:

How is Maelstrom positioning itself in terms of your allocation priorities right now?

Arthur Hayes:

Most of our portfolio is in Bitcoin, with a decent chunk in ETH. Additionally, we have a lot of term sheet projects — things rolling off because we’re involved in advisory, investments, and things we’ve built. Among the liquid positions, EtherFi and Pendle are probably our two largest holdings.

David:

How often do you rotate in and out of Bitcoin?

Arthur Hayes:

Not that often. Maybe one or two big buying or selling events every year. I don’t want to be trading too much.

The mandate is to outperform Bitcoin. So, if we can invest in a new project that outperforms the Bitcoin capital we had to sell to invest, that’s good. Then we’ll buy more Bitcoin with our profits.

David:

We’ve talked to a lot of Bitcoin maxis who say the best way to outperform Bitcoin is to buy more Bitcoin.

Arthur Hayes:

I think that’s false. It depends on the time period. For example, Solana was at $7 and went up to $300. If you put your money in Solana at $7 and sold it all at $300, you definitely outperformed Bitcoin over that time period.

David:

Final question for me: what’s next for Maelstrom? Any new plans, expansions, or projects?

Arthur Hayes:

We’re actually launching a buyout business. We’re raising investor capital to buy specific crypto businesses with the goal of revamping management, adding different revenue lines, and eventually taking these companies public — likely via SPAC in the United States. We’ve already identified one target and will soon be raising money for it. The aim is to significantly increase the bottom line of this business.

We’re looking at businesses that are highly cash flow positive. The one we’re currently focused on generates a good amount of cash and is being acquired at a very decent price relative to its EBITDA （* Stands for Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization, is a financial metric used to assess a company's profitability before the impact of interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization）.