MegaETH x Polymarket: Public Sale Outlook, Airdrop Timeline, and Market Cap Scenarios

The MegaETH public sale is now live and has already attracted massive attention from the market. The sale features a minimum allocation of $2,650 and a maximum allocation of $186,282, running for a total of 72 hours starting from 1 PM UTC on October 27.

As of now, the MegaETH oversubscribed by 8.9x with total commited at $449 M WITH 16,739 unique participants. Most user actually placed their bids below $3000, just around the minimum allocation as per the team announced that the minimum allocation would be $2650.

Despite the strong early participation, there are still 2 days remaining for registered users to place their bids. According to official data, over 100,000 users have registered for the public sale, but only 16.7% have placed their bids so far. In other words, there is still significant room for more capital inflow, and many potential participants may still be waiting to see how the pricing evolves before committing.

MegaETH X Polymarket

With speculation increasing, the narrative around MegaETH is also heating up on platforms like Polymarket. There are currently four active prediction markets related to the MegaETH sale, allowing traders to speculate on outcomes as shown below:

MegaETH public sale total commitments?

The MegaETH public sale has already seen $449 million in total commitments so far. With 72 hours of bidding and 2 days still remaining, this auction is far from over.

Can It Reach $1 Billion?

Based on the current momentum, reaching $1B in total commitments only requires a 2x increase from the current level. Given that:

• Only 16.7% of registered users have placed bids so far

• Over 100,000 users registered

• Over 80% of users have not participated yet

This makes crossing $1B highly realistic if participation picks up as expected toward the end of the auction, which is a common pattern in bidding events.

What About $1.8B?

To exceed $1.8B, commitments need to grow by around 4x from the current $449M. At first glance, this seems aggressive, but it’s still possible under a “perfect scenario,” where:

• Participation rate climbs above 80%

• Bid distribution stays similar to current data

• Most bids remain small (<$3,000), but sheer volume drives total commitment

For example, using the current bid size distribution:

If the same proportions hold when more users join, total commitments could realistically exceed $1.8B.

$3B or $4B?

This would require a 6-8x increase from the current commitment level. It would take:

• Heavy whale dominance

• Aggressive last-day speculation

• Massive social hype + market confidence

This scenario is not impossible, but based on the commitment curve so far probability is low.

Over 150,000 bidders in the MegaETH public sale?

The MegaETH team officially confirmed that over 100,000 users have registered for the public sale. However, this does not mean all registered users will actually place a bid.

Based on the current data:

• Only 16,739 unique bidders have placed a bid so far

• That’s just 16.7% participation out of the 100,000 registered users

• There are still 2 days remaining before the auction ends

• Even if participation climbs to a high estimate of 60–70%, that would only result in around 60,000–70,000 bidders total

For the auction to reach over 150,000 unique bidders, it would require:

• ~50,000 new users registering in the last 48 hours, AND

• ~100% bid participation from both old and new registrants, which is extremely unlikely

MegaETH airdrop by...?

Unlike the other MegaETH prediction markets focused on the ongoing public sale, two of the Polymarket markets are long-term plays. These are based on future events tied to the MegaETH TGE, which means traders will need to hold their positions for 2–4 months before a result is confirmed.

Because these markets will stay open for a long time, the best strategy is not to market buy immediately, but to set limit orders at better prices and wait for volatility to bring your entries to you. Long-duration markets typically experience big price swings as sentiment changes over time.

The market asking “MegaETH airdrop by 2025?” is largely based on speculation, but here’s what we actually know:

• The MegaETH team has repeatedly stated that the TGE is expected in Q1 2026

• The whitepaper actually indicates a launch by January 2026.

• Given current information available, a 2025 TGE is extremely unlikely

That basically means: you can now buy 1 dollar at 92cent. (NFA)

MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?

This Polymarket question requires patience because the result will only be known after MegaETH completes its TGE. However, we already have early price signals from Hyperliquid pre-market:

• Current price: $0.46

• FDV: $4.6 billion

Another strategy is to simply wait for Monad to launch its TGE and use $MON as the key benchmark for MegaETH. Monad is the closest comparable project to MegaETH as both are high-performance execution layer chains with massive hype.

If Monad opens strong, MegaETH is likely to follow a similar valuation path. But if Monad launches weak or loses momentum, it could compress market expectations for MegaETH’s FDV and which might create a better entry opportunity.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments involve high risk, and you should conduct your own research and invest responsibly.

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