The euphoria surrounding memecoin speculation has subsided, leaving most participants with familiar regrets about missed opportunities. Yet these short-term disappointments pale beside a more persistent concern among crypto investors: the recurring anxiety over Bitcoin's long-term trajectory and whether current prices represent value or excess.

This observation underscores a fundamental question for institutional and retail investors alike: how much higher can the world's largest cryptocurrency climb?

Previous institutional forecasts have drawn skepticism for their ambitious targets. MicroStrategy projects Bitcoin will reach $2.4 million by 2036, while ARK Invest predicts an even more aggressive $3.8 million by 2030. Critics have dismissed these projections as overly optimistic or influenced by vested interests.

However, new academic research from Satoshi Action Education, a non-profit research organization, provides theoretical validation for these bold predictions. The study's supply-demand analysis suggests Bitcoin has a 75% probability of exceeding $4.81 million by 2036—25% higher than the most bullish institutional forecasts.

The $1 Million Milestone: A 2028 Timeline

The research identifies several critical price thresholds and timing predictions that align remarkably with existing institutional models. Most significantly, the study projects Bitcoin will breach $1 million between late 2027 and late 2028.

Under the median scenario, Bitcoin reaches $1.1 million by end-2027, with a 75% probability of achieving this milestone within 2028. The model also predicts a 50% probability of Bitcoin exceeding $3.35 million by 2030, closely matching ARK's timeline.

The study's methodology distinguishes it from traditional price forecasting. Rather than extrapolating from historical trends or assuming Bitcoin will capture specific market shares from gold or other assets, researchers focused exclusively on observable supply and demand dynamics.

This approach examines Bitcoin's fixed 21-million coin supply ceiling against measurable purchasing patterns, including exchange-traded fund inflows, corporate acquisitions, and miner accumulation strategies. The model's strength lies in its reliance on publicly verifiable data streams that can be monitored in real-time.

Institutional Demand Outpaces Supply by 11-to-1 Rati

Current market dynamics reveal a stark supply-demand imbalance. US spot Bitcoin ETFs averaged daily net inflows of approximately 2,900 coins in July 2025. The 11 funds collectively hold 1.485 million Bitcoin—7.1% of total supply—with BlackRock's IBIT alone controlling over 730,000 coins.

Corporate accumulation adds further pressure. The top 100 Bitcoin-holding companies control more than 923,000 coins, with MicroStrategy maintaining its aggressive acquisition pace of roughly 1,000 coins daily. Mining companies have also shifted strategies, with Marathon retaining all 950 coins mined in May 2025 rather than selling to cover operational costs.

Combined institutional demand—encompassing ETF inflows, corporate purchases, miner hoarding, and retail accumulation—removes an estimated 5,000-6,000 Bitcoin from circulation daily. Meanwhile, post-halving mining production generates just 450 new coins per day, creating an 11-to-13 times demand-to-supply ratio.

The Critical Question: Liquid Supply Calculation

Of the 19.9 million Bitcoin already mined, determining actual market liquidity presents the model's greatest challenge. Researchers categorize the existing supply into several tranches:

Approximately 970,000 coins mined by Bitcoin's pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto have never moved and are presumed permanently inaccessible. An additional 1.57 million coins are conservatively estimated as lost due to forgotten private keys or other access failures.

From the remaining 17.36 million "effective supply," 14.4 million coins haven't moved on-chain for over 155 days, classified as illiquid holdings. This dormant supply represents the model's primary uncertainty factor.

The study assumes 40% of these dormant coins—roughly 5.76 million—will permanently exit circulation through corporate treasury strategies, decentralized finance protocols, or genuine loss. This calculation suggests approximately 11.64 million coins comprise the true liquid supply available for trading.

The 2-Million Coin Threshold

The research identifies a critical inflection point when liquid supply contracts below 2 million coins. At this threshold, the model predicts Bitcoin enters a non-linear price acceleration phase where each purchase order generates disproportionate market impact.

This scarcity-driven dynamic creates self-reinforcing feedback loops: rising prices incentivize additional hoarding, further reducing available supply and amplifying subsequent price movements.

Current data suggests this critical threshold could be reached within 3-5 years. If daily circulation outflows maintain their current 6,000-coin pace, liquid supply will drop below 2 million coins before 2030. An acceleration to 7,000 coins daily would advance this timeline to 2028-2029.

The model's scenario analysis reveals stark differences in outcomes based on circulation exit rates:

- At 1,000 coins daily (well below current levels): $1.39 million by 2036

- At 2,000 coins daily (baseline assumption): $1.6 million by 2036

- At 6,000 coins daily (current pace): $5.86 million by 2036

- At 7,000+ coins daily: Near-vertical price acceleration beginning in 2030-2032

Monitoring Framework for Investors

The study's practical value extends beyond price projections to provide a real-time monitoring framework. Four key metrics offer ongoing market assessment:

Exchange Bitcoin balances tracked by platforms like Glassnode and CryptoQuant indicate supply availability. Current exchange holdings near 3 million coins represent a critical watch level, with monthly declines exceeding 100,000-150,000 coins signaling accelerating scarcity.

ETF flow data from Bloomberg and other financial terminals provides institutional demand measurement. Sustained daily net inflows above 2,000-3,000 coins indicate price-insensitive institutional appetite.

Long-term holder ratios currently show 72% of Bitcoin unmoved for over 155 days. Increases beyond 75% suggest accelerating supply withdrawal from circulation.

Daily net circulation exit calculations combining all demand sources minus new mining supply offer comprehensive flow analysis. Sustained levels above 7,000 coins daily may indicate approaching acceleration conditions.

Risk Factors and Model Limitations

The research acknowledges significant uncertainties that could invalidate its projections. The 14.4 million dormant coins represent the primary wild card—their potential market return during price rallies could dramatically alter supply dynamics.

Additionally, the model assumes institutional buying patterns remain price-insensitive. Historical precedent from Bitcoin's 2020-2021 rally supports this assumption, as corporate and ETF accumulation continued despite an 81% price increase from $65,000 to $118,000.

However, extreme price levels may eventually trigger demand destruction or regulatory intervention. The study also doesn't fully account for derivatives markets or credit-based Bitcoin products that could effectively increase supply through fractional backing.

Convergence of Independent Models

Despite methodological differences, the academic research aligns remarkably with institutional forecasts developed through entirely separate approaches. MicroStrategy's Bitcoin24 model, which assumes declining growth rates over time, also projects $2.4 million by 2036 under baseline assumptions.

This convergence across independent analytical frameworks suggests the projections may reflect fundamental market dynamics rather than speculative optimism.

Investment Implications

For institutional portfolios and individual investors, the research provides a framework for long-term Bitcoin allocation decisions. The study's median projections imply annualized returns of 30-45% through 2036, though with substantial volatility and downside risk.

More immediately, the monitoring framework offers tactical guidance for position sizing and timing. Sustained institutional demand at current levels, combined with continued supply contraction, supports the thesis for significant price appreciation within the current decade.

The research ultimately suggests that Bitcoin's fixed supply cap, when confronted with persistent institutional demand, may drive price discovery into uncharted territory. Whether these projections prove accurate remains to be seen, but the underlying supply-demand mechanics are already visible in real-time market data.

As one researcher noted, those who purchased Bitcoin three years ago at any price remain profitable today. The question for current investors is whether today's $120,000 will eventually be remembered as another "how could we have thought it was expensive" moment—or whether models, however sophisticated, remain imperfect guides to market reality.

Time will provide the definitive answer. In the interim, investors now have specific metrics to monitor as this unprecedented monetary experiment unfolds.

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