The Fed Chair Race: Which of 11 Candidates Will Control Monetary Policy?

In August, as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered what might be his final major address at the Jackson Hole symposium, the race for his replacement had quietly commenced.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent held a list containing 11 potential candidates.

Beginning on Labor Day, September 1, Bessent planned to interview each prospect individually to assist President Trump in selecting the ultimate nominee.

Trump has never concealed his displeasure with Powell, publicly branding him a "numbskull" and "moron" on multiple occasions. The president seeks a more compliant Fed leader while simultaneously needing to maintain the institution's reputation for independence.

Which candidate stands the best chance of becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair? The following analysis examines all 11 contenders.

First Tier: Potential Successors Within the Fed System

Four senior Fed officials constitute the most competitive first tier. These individuals understand the Fed's operational mechanisms, possess extensive policymaking experience, and most importantly, have already demonstrated their capabilities within the current monetary framework.

Michelle Bowman: The Regulatory Iron Lady

Key label: "The Sole Dissenter"

At 54, Michelle Bowman represents one of the youngest Board of Governors members, yet potentially the most hawkish. In 2024, when the Fed initiated its rate-cutting cycle, she cast the only dissenting vote among governors, a display of conviction that earned respect within Trump's inner circle.

Core Strengths:

• Comprehensive regulatory expertise spanning from Kansas banking commissioner to Fed Vice Chair for Supervision

• Deep understanding of community banking, aligning with Trump's agenda to ease regulations on smaller financial institutions

• Resolute personality, demonstrating willingness to maintain independent positions

Potential Obstacles: Her hardline approach might trigger market concerns about excessive monetary tightening policies.

Christopher Waller: The Scholar-Practitioner

Key label: "Powell 2.0"

At 65, Waller represents the most secure selection. As former research director at the St. Louis Fed, he combines profound academic credentials with practical policy implementation experience. Crucially, Trump personally nominated him as a governor during his initial presidential term.

Core Strengths:

• Distinguished authority in monetary economics, having published extensively on central bank digital currencies and financial stability

• Outstanding communication skills, consistently providing speeches that precisely shape market expectations

Potential Obstacles: May be perceived as excessively conventional, lacking the transformative vision Trump seeks.

Philip Jefferson: African American Identity, Current Vice Chair

Key label: "The Steady Coordinator"

If selected, 63-year-old Philip Jefferson would make history as the Fed's first African American chair. However, his qualifications extend far beyond demographic representation. As the current Vice Chair, he possesses unmatched familiarity with the Fed's daily operational complexities.

Core Strengths:

• Labor economics specialist with distinctive insights into employment markets, precisely the metrics Trump prioritizes most

• Robust academic foundation as Dartmouth College economics professor, complemented by substantial practical policy experience

Potential Obstacles: Perceived as excessively cautious, possibly lacking decisive leadership capabilities during crisis situations.

Lorie Logan: The Market Operator

Key label: "The Central Banker Wall Street Understands Best"

Lorie Logan previously served as Dallas Fed president and spent extensive time overseeing the New York Fed's market operations division, establishing herself as a genuine expert in managing trillions of dollars in financial transactions.

Core Strengths:

• 23 years of New York Fed experience, personally executing open market operations

• Extensive crisis management expertise, having participated in responses to both the 2008 financial crisis and 2020 pandemic disruptions

Potential Obstacles: Her background as a regional Fed president might constitute a disadvantage, lacking sufficient political influence in Washington.

These four internal candidates represent the Fed's establishment faction. Their collective advantage lies in ensuring policy continuity while preventing severe market volatility.

Second Tier: Seasoned Returnees

The following three candidates previously departed from the Fed, bringing primarily former official credentials. Their shared advantage lies in understanding the Fed's operational systems while remaining unrestrained by existing frameworks.

Kevin Warsh: The Wall Street Golden Boy's Return

Key label: "The Youngest Possibility"

54-year-old Kevin Warsh possesses an enviable resume: at 35, he became the Fed's youngest governor in history, served as Bernanke's crucial advisor during the 2008 financial crisis, and after leaving the Fed, devoted himself to monetary policy reform research at Stanford's Hoover Institution.

More significantly, Trump once seriously considered him when selecting Treasury Secretary.

Core Strengths:

• Distinctive experience spanning Wall Street (Morgan Stanley), the Federal Reserve, and academic institutions

• Clear reform ideology, having authored multiple influential articles on Fed institutional reform

• Extensive network connections. His father-in-law is the Estée Lauder cosmetics empire heir, providing deep relationships in both Wall Street and Washington

• Prime age and vigor, capable of bringing next-generation leadership to the Federal

Potential Obstacles: Was a leading Fed chair candidate in 2017 but ultimately unsuccessful.

James Bullard: The Inflation Prophet

Key label: "The Most Inflation-Savvy Individual"

If anyone deserves recognition for earliest predicting the current inflation surge, James Bullard certainly ranks among the top. This former St. Louis Fed president began warning about inflation risks in 2021, a full year ahead of the Fed's mainstream consensus.

Core Strengths:

• Outstanding inflation forecasting record, earning media recognition as the "Inflation Hawk King"

• Currently serves as Purdue University business school dean, maintaining sharp insights into economic research

Potential Obstacles: Excessively independent personality. During his St. Louis Fed tenure, he frequently emerged as a dissenter at FOMC meetings.

Larry Lindsey: Political Veteran, Bush's Economic Advisor

At 70, Larry Lindsey may possess the most sophisticated understanding among all candidates of navigating between political and economic spheres.

He previously served as President George W. Bush's chief economic advisor and also held the position of Fed governor during the Clinton administration. Such bipartisan experience represents an extraordinary rarity in today's polarized Washington environment.

Core Strengths:

• White House expertise, excelling at coordinating relationships between the Federal Reserve and executive branch

• Exceptional forecasting capabilities, having accurately predicted both the internet bubble burst and Iraq War costs

• Founded his own economic consulting firm, maintaining close connections with the business community

Potential Obstacles: Age may become a concern, and having departed the Fed over 20 years ago raises questions about his familiarity with contemporary monetary policy instruments.

Third Tier: The President's Trusted Economic Advisors

If the first two tiers represent professionalism, this tier represents loyalty.

The greatest advantage of these two candidates lies not in their understanding of monetary policy, but rather in their comprehension of "Trump Economics."

Kevin Hassett: The President's Economic Mentor

Key label: "Chief Evangelist of Trump Economics"

62-year-old Kevin Hassett may be the candidate with the closest relationship to Trump among all contenders. As current National Economic Council Director, he interprets economic data for the president almost daily. More importantly, he represents one of the few individuals capable of persuading Trump to sit through complete economics lessons.

Core Strengths:

• Has earned Trump's deep trust, who calls him 'my economics professor

• Tax reform specialist, serving as one of the primary architects of Trump's 2017 tax reform

• Consistently identifies bright spots within economic data, a style Trump particularly favors

Potential Obstacles: Lacks central banking experience, having never worked at the Federal Reserve, with monetary policy understanding derived primarily from academic research.

Marc Sumerlin: Establishment Reformer

Key label: "An Outsider Who Understands Washington Rules"

Marc Sumerlin represents an intriguing contradiction: possessing the most traditional establishment credentials, having previously served as deputy director of the National Economic Council under the Bush administration, yet proposing the most radical Federal Reserve reform agenda.

He advocates for comprehensive reform of the Fed's decision-making mechanisms, including shortening Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statements, reducing press conference frequency, and restoring the Fed's "mystique."

Core Strengths:

• Extensive bipartisan networks, having provided economic counsel to multiple Republican senators

• Founded Evenflow Macro consulting firm, with clientele including Wall Street's premier hedge funds

Potential Obstacles: Relatively low public recognition, with limited understanding from both the public and markets.

Fourth Tier: Wall Street Fresh Blood

The following two candidates possess hands-on experience at financial institutions, representing individuals who stand at the market frontlines.

David Zervos: Sharp-Tongued Commentator

56-year-old David Zervos ranks among Wall Street's most distinctive economists. As Jefferies' chief market strategist, his market commentary has gained recognition for being sharp, direct, and provocative.

Core Strengths:

• Exceptionally keen market instincts, having issued early warnings about the subprime crisis in 2008 and boldly turning bullish during the peak market panic of March 2020

• Possesses Federal Reserve work experience, having worked at the New York Fed during the 1990s, providing understanding of central bank operations

Potential Obstacles: Excessively forthright personality may create problems within the Federal Reserve, which requires diplomatic language. He has publicly characterized certain central bank policies as "economic suicide."

Rick Rieder: Guardian of Massive Capital

Key label: "The Man Managing $4 Trillion"

As BlackRock's global chief investment officer for fixed income, he manages assets exceeding $4 trillion.

This figure surpasses Germany's GDP. Every Federal Reserve policy adjustment directly impacts his investment portfolio.

Core Strengths:

• Has navigated multiple economic cycles and financial crises

• Oversees globally distributed bond investment portfolios

• Risk management specialist, sustaining losses far below market averages during the 2022 bond market massacre

Potential Obstacles: Transitioning from managing private sector capital to formulating policies that affect such capital may raise questions about conflicts of interest. Additionally, his Wall Street high-compensation background could trigger populist backlash.

Traditionally, the Federal Reserve has favored leaders with academic backgrounds, believing they better maintain independence and long-term perspective. However, Zervos and Rieder represent an alternative possibility: using market battlefield experience to guide policy formulation.

The Unknown Ahead

Who will emerge victorious remains an open question, but historical experience demonstrates that what truly defines a Federal Reserve chair is often not the philosophy they bring, but rather the crises they confront.

Greenspan encountered the internet bubble, Bernanke faced the financial tsunami, Yellen confronted the pandemic shock, and Powell experienced the resurgence of inflation.

What will the next Federal Reserve chair encounter?

A comprehensive assault from digital currencies, or an unimaginable "black swan" event?

This future affects everyone intimately.

Eleven individuals, one chair, countless possibilities.

The competition has commenced.