Bitcoin’s Underperforming 13% Increase in 2025 Despite $63.1 Billion Liquidity Inflows

Bitcoin’s year-to-date performance has fallen well below market expectations, despite substantial capital inflows into the crypto sector. According to a report by 10x Research, more than $63 billion in liquidity has entered the crypto market so far this year, yet Bitcoin has posted a modest 13% increase over the same period.

Inflation declined from 3.5% in April 2024 to 2.4%, briefly rose to 3.0% in February 2025, and has since stabilized at 2.4% for the past three consecutive months. Inflation remains comfortably below the 3% level previously flagged by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as a concern. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has held steady at 4.2% for nearly a year, easing concerns about a weakening labor market. As the window for tariff-driven inflationary pressures narrows, attention is now turning to the upcoming CPI release on July 15.

Crypto Liquidity Inflows Surge in 2025, Stablecoin Market Hits $252.8B

Data from 10x Research shows that total liquidity inflows into the crypto market in 2025 have reached $63.1 billion so far, compared to $147.1 billion recorded for the entire year of 2024. This means that the 2025 year-to-date inflows have already captured approximately 43% of 2024’s total liquidity inflows.

Breaking it down by category:

• Stablecoins: Liquidity inflows in 2025 stand at $35.5 billion, compared to $61.0 billion in 2024. This represents about 58% of 2024’s total stablecoin inflows.

• MicroStrategy: 2025 inflows have reached $14.0 billion, compared to $21.9 billion in 2024, which is 64% of the previous year’s total.

• ETFs: Year-to-date ETF inflows for 2025 are $12.1 billion, versus $34.4 billion in 2024, marking 35% of 2024’s total inflows.

• Futures: Futures inflows in 2025 are significantly lower at $1.4 billion, compared to $29.8 billion in 2024, roughly 5% of last year’s figure.

Liquidity Concentrates in Stablecoins, Leaving Bitcoin Price Action Muted

This notable liquidity influx aligns with the continued expansion of stablecoins. According to DefiLlama, the total stablecoin market capitalization currently stands at $252.8 billion, reflecting an increase of $912.8 million over the past seven days. USDT continues to lead the market with a commanding 62.53% dominance.

From the chart, stablecoin market capitalization has shown a strong recovery after a contraction in 2022 and 2023, following its peak at approximately $188 billion in May 2022. The current trajectory indicates a sustained upward trend throughout late 2024 and into 2025.

This accumulation may also be driven by the growing potential of real-world assets (RWA) and the increasing demand for stablecoins in payment and financing solutions like PayFi.

This growing stablecoin activity is further supported by recent on-chain movements. Notably, Tether continues to actively mint USDT. On June 18, on-chain analyst @lookonchain reported that Tether had just minted another $1 billion USDT. They pointed out that in the past, Bitcoin prices have surged following similar minting events, raising the question: "Will BTC pump again this time?"

Strategy’s Aggressive Accumulation Offsets Weaker ETF Momentum in 2025

Bitcoin’s monthly chart shows a gradual recovery from the 2022–2023 downtrend. The price has broken above previous consolidation zones and is now trading near all-time highs, around the $108,000 level. The current pattern shares similarities with past consolidation phases that were followed by growth cycles, but it could also reflect the price behavior observed between April and November 2021.

The steady net inflows into Bitcoin Spot ETFs reflect sustained public interest and continued liquidity entering the crypto market through regulated channels. So far in 2025, year-to-date ETF inflows have reached $12.1 billion, which represents 35% of the total ETF inflows recorded in 2024. Looking ahead, the ETF landscape is expected to broaden, with multiple altcoin ETFs currently pending SEC decisions between October and December 2025. Analysts estimate a high likelihood of approval for many of these filings, with projected odds ranging from 90% to 95% for the leading assets.

Despite weaker ETF inflows compared to 2024, Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) has provided strong institutional support for Bitcoin through its aggressive accumulation, helping sustain Bitcoin’s steady recovery toward all-time highs. The company has reportedly purchased a total of 592,345 BTC as of June 23, reinforcing its position as one of Bitcoin’s most prominent corporate backers and demonstrating its continued commitment to Bitcoin’s long-term thesis.

Without Leverage-Driven Euphoria, Bitcoin Struggles to Respond to Surging Market Liquidity

In a podcast with What Bitcoin Did, Jeff Ross, CEO of Vailshire Capital Management, said he believes the current market environment remains relatively conservative and that Bitcoin's next major rally depends on three critical factors: global liquidity, economic strength, and leverage.

This perspective adds another layer to the current liquidity-driven narrative, highlighting why Bitcoin’s price may not have fully responded to the recent capital inflows.

He noted, "The U.S. economy has been okay but not great, and it's definitely not accelerating like we should be seeing right now at this point in the cycle. That's why I believe Bitcoin's price hasn't started to take off into that final parabolic move that everybody kind of anticipates."

He expects the U.S. economy to truly awaken in the second half of 2025, with Bitcoin likely to rise to the $150,000 range or higher. Ross explained that when both global liquidity and economic strength are in place, the third "burner", leverage, switches on. True market euphoria, often leading to a blow-off top, typically occurs when investors become overly confident and begin using significant leverage in their trades. This aligns with 10x Research's data, which shows futures inflows in 2025 remain low at just 5% of last year’s total, suggesting limited market leverage so far.

Fed’s Cautious Stance Adds Weight to Crypto’s Liquidity Puzzle

As Bitcoin’s next major move may rely on improving economic conditions, the Fed’s upcoming decisions could play a pivotal role in unlocking further upside potential.

On June 24, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that the Fed is in no hurry to lower interest rates, despite growing external calls for policy easing. Powell explained that the Fed is carefully assessing how recent tariff hikes might influence inflation, as these could lead to short-term price increases. However, on June 25, he also indicated that potential future trade deals could create room for rate cuts.

Looking Forward

While liquidity continues to build and market participants await clearer signals from the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin’s next major move may ultimately depend on the alignment of macroeconomic strength, investor confidence, and regulatory developments. Until then, the crypto market appears to be in a quiet period, with cautious optimism guiding the current cycle.