Polymarket Achieves 90% Prediction Accuracy on Global Events, New Research Reveals

Recent research by New York City-based data scientist Alex McCullough demonstrates that Polymarket, a leading prediction market platform, can forecast events with up to 94% accuracy. This impressive finding comes from a comprehensive analysis of the platform's historical data presented on a Dune dashboard.

McCullough employed a methodical approach in his research, carefully removing markets with extreme probabilities (above 90% or below 10%) after outcomes were known but not officially settled. This methodical filtering helped maintain the integrity of the analysis and provided a more accurate assessment of Polymarket's predictive capabilities.

Understanding Prediction Biases and Market Dynamics

The research identified a consistent pattern where Polymarket slightly overestimates event probabilities across most ranges. This overestimation can be attributed to several factors:

• Acquiescence bias among participants

• Tendency toward herd mentality in betting patterns

• Insufficient liquidity in certain markets

• User preference for high-risk wagers

Interestingly, McCullough discovered that longer-term markets appear more accurate primarily because they include numerous clearly unlikely outcomes. In an interview with Polymarket's The Oracle blog, he explained this phenomenon using the example of Gavin Newsom's presidential candidacy—a market that generated $54 million in volume during the last election. Such long-term markets often include obviously predictable outcomes (like Newsom's minimal chances of winning), which artificially inflates the platform's accuracy metrics for extended forecasts.

Sports Markets Provide Clearer Accuracy Indicators

By contrast, head-to-head sports markets offer a more balanced distribution of outcomes with fewer extreme possibilities. McCullough's analysis revealed these markets demonstrate clearer representations of predictive accuracy, showing notable improvements over time and periodic accuracy spikes as events unfold.

The sports sector has become increasingly significant for Polymarket, attracting nearly $4.5 billion in collective volume wagered on major sporting events including the NBA, MLB, Champions League, and Premier League finals, according to data from Polymarket Analytics.

Political Implications and Current Predictions

McCullough's findings about Polymarket's accuracy may hold particular relevance in Canadian politics, where the platform currently shows Liberal Party of Canada leader Mark Carney with a substantial lead over Conservative rival Pierre Poilievre—a margin that exceeds projections from conventional poll aggregators.

The research suggests that Polymarket's "crystal ball" capabilities could provide valuable insights for forecasting significant events across various domains, from politics to sports and beyond.

Cryptocurrency Market Predictions Gain Traction on Polymarket

Polymarket's predictive capabilities extend well beyond politics and sports into the cryptocurrency markets, one of the platform's most popular prediction categories. According to recent data, over 280,000 users have been active on Polymarket in March 2025 alone, though daily trading volumes have declined somewhat since President Trump's inauguration in January.

The platform currently features lively discussions about Bitcoin's (BTC) price trajectory in 2025, with diverse predictions: approximately 46% probability that Bitcoin will reach $120,000 this year, 27% chance of hitting $150,000, and a 12% likelihood of reaching $250,000. Notably, the prediction of Bitcoin reaching $1 million carries only a 4% probability, reflecting waning optimism as institutional interest declines and ETF outflows continue throughout March.

For short-term forecasts, platform users generally believe Bitcoin may retreat to the $75,000 level, a prediction supported by 34% of participants.

These cryptocurrency predictions further validate McCullough's research findings, demonstrating Polymarket's potential as a predictive tool across diverse markets. As 2025 unfolds, the accuracy of these forecasts will be tested, providing additional evidence of the platform's predictive capabilities beyond political and sporting events.