Polymarket x Monad: Airdrop Timing and FDV Expectations

Facebook Twitter Linkedin Email Copy Link

By JuneNov 11, 2025

Polymarket traders are betting that Monad’s airdrop will land shortly after its Nov 24 mainnet launch, most likely between Nov 25 and Nov 30. For FDV, markets see $2–3B as the safest range aligned with fundamentals, while premarket data on Hyperliquid points to a more speculative $4-6B valuation window.

There are 2 topics on Monad on Polymarket, one predicting the airdrop date, and another predicting its FDV one day after launch.

Monad airdrop by ...?

For the airdrop, it’s basically a no-brainer. Monad officially announced that mainnet goes live on Nov 24, 9AM ET, so the airdrop would logically follow soon after. Based on current odds, Nov 25 and Nov 30 are still giving small but safe profits for those betting correctly.

$MON FDV one day after launch?

Now, the real debate is about FDV one day after launch.

Here's the context:

In November 2024, the team raised $225 million at a $3 billion valuation in a Series A round led by Paradigm. More recently, the public sale involves selling 7.5 billion tokens at $0.025 each, raising $187.5 million at a $2.5 billion valuation.

Most importantly, $MON will be the first-ever token sale on Coinbase’s new Launchpad, a major milestone that is expected to draw significant institutional participation and retail hype.

Given these figures, the fully diluted valuation market will be interesting.

Theoretically, it shouldn’t fall below $3 billion, as that represents the benchmark set by Paradigm’s round. If it trades much lower, it could appear undervalued relative to previous investors. On the other hand, if the valuation surges too high, it would likely reflect speculative hype rather than fundamentals.

As of now, premarket trading on Hyperliquid prices $MON at $0.054, implying a $5.4 billion valuation, which is already well above both the Series A and public sale levels.

The safest bet based on the market odds is “> $2B,” priced at 96¢, which implies a 96% chance of being correct. Even “> $3B” at 91¢ is considered relatively safe, as it aligns closely with Monad’s Series A valuation ($3B led by Paradigm). At launch, ~10.8% unlocks technically, but practically ~50% (including ecosystem initiatives), amplifying sell risks.

The least likely bets are “> $12B” and “> $14B”, both trading around 2¢, implying only about a 2% chance. Such valuations would require extreme retail euphoria.

Tldr:

Safe: >$2B or >$3B (aligned with real fundamentals)
Speculative: >$4B to >$6B (possible if hype accelerates)
Non-Likely: >$12B or >$14B (pure over-hype territory)

Given premarket trading on Hyperliquid around $5.4B FDV, the sweet spot for realistic upside sits between $4B-$6B, but anything above $10B is currently viewed as fantasy pricing.