Data Reveals Solana's Early Recovery Signs: Will the $5 Billion FTX Payout Bring Challenges?

Capital Flows Back to Solana Amid Early Signs of On-Chain Recovery

Solana is showing promising signs of recovery as capital begins to flow back into the network after weeks of outflows. According to Glassnode data, the 30-day realized cap inflows for Solana have turned positive, growing at a rate of 4–5%. While the inflows are relatively modest compared to frenzied periods in December and January, the move marks a trend reversal following a prolonged stretch of realized losses and capital outflows reflecting investor exit and fading conviction. This marks a potential trend reversal, suggesting that market confidence in Solana might be returning.

Realized cap inflow is a key metric that tracks the actual capital entering or leaving an asset, based on the USD value of tokens at their last on-chain movement. Unlike speculative price spikes, this metric provides a clearer picture of where holders are deploying their funds. For Solana, the recent uptick in this metric indicates that buy-side pressure might be making a comeback. Although the price of SOL has not fully reflected this shift, the data hints at a possible market bounce or at least a stabilization after prolonged losses.

This development comes at a time when Solana’s price remains subdued, trading at $172.51 and fluctuating around $175 over the past three days. While still far from its 2025 high of $261, the signs of market recovery could mark the beginning of a potential price climb. Renewed capital inflows could signal a turning point, with traders positioning themselves in anticipation of a potential rally.

SOL Briefly Dips on FTX Payout News

FTX's announcement to distribute over $5 billion to creditors starting May 30 has sent ripples through the crypto market, particularly impacting Solana. As part of the bankrupt exchange’s Chapter 11 reorganization plan, the funds will be disbursed through BitGo and Kraken, with eligible creditors receiving their payouts within one to three business days.

The news triggered immediate market reactions, with Solana’s price dropping 4% to $169. This decline was largely attributed to fears that some creditors might sell their SOL holdings once the payouts are received.

However, as crypto analyst Axel Bitblaze pointed out, this could be a classic case of a "sell-the-news" phenomenon. He stated, "Market read that as: 'uh oh, some of those creditors will sell their $SOL.' So Solana dropped 4% to $169. But zoom out. This could be one of those 'sell-the-news' fake dips. Because that $5B is coming back into the market and some of it will flow into Solana ecosystem projects. People don’t just cash out and walk away."

This perspective highlights a potential silver lining to the situation. While the initial reaction saw Solana's price dip, the long-term implications might be more favorable. A portion of the distributed funds is expected to flow back into the market, potentially benefiting projects within the Solana ecosystem. This could inject fresh liquidity into crypto space, countering fears of prolonged selling pressure.

Market Outlook: What Lies Ahead for Solana?

Looking ahead, the convergence of these two events—renewed capital inflows into Solana and the upcoming FTX payouts—could shape the near-term trajectory of SOL. The return of buy-side pressure, as indicated by the realized cap inflow data, is a positive sign. However, the market's reaction to FTX payouts will be crucial. If a significant portion of the $5 billion finds its way into Solana-related projects, it could catalyze further growth in the ecosystem.

BlockFlow will continue to monitor these developments closely, as they could provide valuable insights into broader market dynamics and Solana’s resilience in navigating external pressures. Investors and market participants should stay informed, as these factors may play a pivotal role in shaping the future of Solana and the wider crypto market.