Wintermute: Bitcoin Shows Apparent Growing Resilience amid Macroeconomic Turbulence

Bitcoin is proving its mettle as a resilient asset, weathering macroeconomic headwinds better than traditional financial markets and altcoins like Ether (ETH), according to a recent report by crypto market maker Wintermute. Published on April 14, 2025, the analysis highlights Bitcoin's relative stability during a global market downturn, driven by U.S. tariff announcements and inflationary pressures. As BTC holds above $83,000, its performance contrasts sharply with ETH's ongoing struggles, reinforcing Bitcoin’s evolving role as a macro hedge.

The cryptocurrency market has endured significant volatility in Q1 2025, with Bitcoin sliding from a January high of $109,000 to a low of $74,773 in early April, per CoinGecko. Despite this 31.4% correction, BTC demonstrated remarkable recovery, rebounding to $83,058 within a single day following adjustments to U.S. tariff policies. As of April 16, 2025, Bitcoin trades at around $83,700, showcasing stability that Wintermute attributes to its "apparent growing resilience amid macroeconomic turbulence."

Wintermute's report highlights a departure from Bitcoin's historical behavior, where it often suffered steeper losses than traditional assets during crises. Unlike the S&P 500, which faced sharper declines amid fears of a trade war sparked by President Donald Trump's tariff announcements, BTC's losses have been comparatively modest.

Price Changes of Main Assets between 30 March and 16 April

Source: TradingView

In contrast, ETH has underperformed, dropping 56.96% in Q1 2025, its worst Q1 since 2018, according to CoinGlass. ETH fell to an 18-month low of $1,471 in April 2025, driven by liquidations up to $210 million in leveraged long positions in one day and broader altcoin market weakness. Wintermute's report suggests that Bitcoin is likely to continue outperforming Ether due to BTC's stronger liquidity, institutional adoption, and resilience to macroeconomic shocks. Despite the upcoming Pectra upgrade, which aims to enhance validator staking and scalability, analysts remain cautious about ETH's near-term prospects.

Wintermute shared their sights:"Bitcoin's resilience during the recent market downturn, alongside sustained institutional interest evidenced by significant ETF inflows over the past year (despite recent outflows), suggests it may continue to outperform Ethereum unless major catalysts like the Pectra upgrade and potential Ethereum ETF staking approvals bring substantial traction to Ethereum."

While Wintermute is optimistic, not all analysts share the same view. Alex Obchakevich, founder of Obchakevich Research, told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin's growing resilience may be temporary. He attributes BTC's stability to increased institutional interest via ETF investments and its promotion as "digital gold" due to its decentralized nature. However, Obchakevich cautioned, "As the trade war intensifies, Bitcoin may revert to being seen as a risky asset, with investors likely turning to physical gold for safety."